Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.88: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality.
Tri Pointe Homes designs, builds, and sells innovative single-family homes in 17 markets across 12 states and DC through West, Central, and East segments, targeting entry-level to luxury buyers. In 2025, it delivered 4,947 homes at an average price of ~$680,000; a definitive... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.88: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-13Item 1.01HIGHTri Pointe entered into merger agreement with Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. and subsidiary Teton NewCo, Inc. Each outstanding share will convert to $47.00 cash. Board approved and recommended stockholder adoption. Pending regulatory and stockholder approvals.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -29.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.88: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $46.74. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.05 (-1.8% upside). Prior stop was $46.74. Stop-loss: $46.74.
Target reached (-14.8% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 7.2), Material insider selling (14 sells, 0.06% of cap).
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover TPH with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. do?Tri Pointe Homes designs, builds, and sells innovative single-family homes in 17 markets across 12 states and DC...
Tri Pointe Homes designs, builds, and sells innovative single-family homes in 17 markets across 12 states and DC through West, Central, and East segments, targeting entry-level to luxury buyers. In 2025, it delivered 4,947 homes at an average price of ~$680,000; a definitive merger agreement with Sumitomo Forestry at $47.00/share was signed February 13, 2026.