Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $149.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.
Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury residential homes across 24 states and DC, operating 446 selling communities with a fiscal 2025 backlog of $5.49 billion (4,647 homes). Revenue is generated from move-up, first-time luxury, active-adult, and second-home buyers;... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $149.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Toll Brothers, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) Given Consensus Rating of "Moderate Buy" by Brokerages - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Slides as Market Rises: Facts to Know Before You Trade - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Toll Brothers Announces Final Opportunity for Luxury Living at Santa Rosa Valley Estates in California - markets.busines — markets.businessinsider.com positive
- NEWS Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS TOLL BROTHERS ($TOL) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our revenues and income from operations is generated from California.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02MEDIUMKarl K. Mistry appointed CEO effective March 30, 2026 per previously announced succession plan, succeeding Douglas Yearley who became Executive Chairman. Mistry also joined the Board with term expiring at 2027 annual meeting.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -7.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $149.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $149.53 (+0.1%), stop $140.71 (−6.2%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $149.53 (0.0% upside). Target $149.53 (+0.1%), stop $140.71 (−6.2%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $140.71.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.
Toll Brothers, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
24 analysts cover TOL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $164.
What does Toll Brothers, Inc. do?Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury residential homes across 24 states and DC, operating 446 selling...
Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury residential homes across 24 states and DC, operating 446 selling communities with a fiscal 2025 backlog of $5.49 billion (4,647 homes). Revenue is generated from move-up, first-time luxury, active-adult, and second-home buyers; 11,292 homes delivered in fiscal 2025. California generates a significant and above-average-margin portion of revenues.