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TKNOAlpha Teknova, Inc.Sell5.4·$7.86
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Alpha Teknova is a cash-burning, below-floor-quality small cap whose shares are already above the engine's target, leaving little upside despite narrowing losses and revenue growth.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Floor→Stable
  • Target Already Exceeded↓Deteriorating
  • Narrowing Quarterly Losses↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 11, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Alpha Teknova, Inc. (TKNO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 6 days (2026-11-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.86: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 11.00; Below-average business quality.

Alpha Teknova makes reagents, media and custom-formulated products for life-science research, diagnostics and cell and gene therapy customers, almost all in the U.S. Lab Essentials contributed 76.6% of 2025 revenue and Clinical Solutions 18.9%. Customers buying more than $10,000... Read more

QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.15%
Stop $7.31Analyst target $8.41(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst consensus$9.67+23.0%6 analysts
$8.41Analyst target
$7.86price
$9.67mean
$12

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.86: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 11.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Alpha Teknova, Inc.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Lab Essentials business (76.6%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: customers in the U.S. (94.4%)
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-41.4
Mkt Cap$485M
EV/EBITDA-48.1
Profit Mgn-38.4%
ROE-24.2%
Rev Growth18.5%
Beta0.86
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C11.00bearish
IV136%elevated
Max Pain$10+27.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductLab Essentials business77%
    10-K Item 1: 'our Lab Essentials business contributed 76.6% of our total revenue'
  • HIGHGeographiccustomers in the U.S.94%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, revenue from sales to customers in the U.S. represented 94.4% of our total revenue.'
  • MEDIUMSuppliertwo suppliers of inventory purchases
    10-K Item 1A: 'individually each made up 10% or more of our total inventory purchases, and these suppliers comprised 56% of our total inventory purchases in the aggregate.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -38.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
2.9
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
8.5
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
1.4
Growth Rank
5.9
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.94Resistance $9.41

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+7.0%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKNO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.86: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 11.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $7.31. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKNO stock price target?

Analyst target: $8.41 (+7.0% upside). Prior stop was $7.31. Stop-loss: $7.31.

What are the risks of investing in TKNO?

Concentration risk — Product: Lab Essentials business (76.6%); Concentration risk — Geographic: customers in the U.S. (94.4%); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is TKNO overvalued or undervalued?

Alpha Teknova, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -41.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKNO?

14 analysts cover TKNO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Alpha Teknova, Inc. do?Alpha Teknova makes reagents, media and custom-formulated products for life-science research, diagnostics and cell and...

Alpha Teknova makes reagents, media and custom-formulated products for life-science research, diagnostics and cell and gene therapy customers, almost all in the U.S. Lab Essentials contributed 76.6% of 2025 revenue and Clinical Solutions 18.9%. Customers buying more than $10,000 annually were about 85% of 2025 revenue.

Related stocks: IRWD (Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · BCRX (BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · ANIP (ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · SUPN (Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · BHC (Bausch Health Companies Inc.)
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