Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TDG stock price target?

Entry $1148.27, take-profit $1383.43 (+24.9% upside). Target $1383.43 (+20.5%), stop $1069.34 (−7.3%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1.

Q: What are the risks of investing in TDG?

Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk; Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is TDG overvalued or undervalued?

Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at a P/E of 37.3 (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Overall verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

Q: What do analysts say about TDG?

28 analysts cover TDG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $1537.

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $1148.27 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW.

TransDigm designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components critical to commercial and military aircraft, with ~90% of fiscal 2025 net sales from proprietary products. Approximately 55% of net sales came from the aftermarket, which has... Read more

$1147.69+24.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#33 of 47 Aerospace & Defense

Entry $1148.27(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $1069.34Target $1383.43(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1

Analyst target$1537.14+33.9%21 analysts

$1383.43our TP

$1147.69price

$1537.14mean

$1835

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $1148.27 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.3

P/E (Fwd)25.3

Mkt Cap$65.5B

EV/EBITDA20.0

Profit Mgn22.2%

ROE—

Rev Growth13.9%

Beta0.95

DividendNone

Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish

IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers40%
10-K Item 1A: 'our top ten customers for fiscal year 2025 accounted for approximately 40% of our net sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.415%0.66

Quality8.015%1.20

Growth3.015%0.45

Momentum1.110%0.11

Sentiment7.110%0.71

Insider Activity3.410%0.34

Peer Rank5.810%0.58

Technical Setup6.95%0.35

Risk Profile7.25%0.36

Catalyst4.95%0.25

Overall (Σ contributions)5.00

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

3.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

6.0

GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dA.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate

RSI

38 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1128.21Resistance $1303.06

Price Targets

$1069

$1148

$1383

A.Upside+20.5%

A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk

! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TDG stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $1148.27 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $1383.43 (+20.5%), stop $1069.34 (−7.3%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TDG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1383.43 (+24.9% upside). Target $1383.43 (+20.5%), stop $1069.34 (−7.3%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $1069.34.

Is TDG overvalued or undervalued?

Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at a P/E of 37.3 (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TDG?

28 analysts cover TDG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $1537.

What does Transdigm Group Incorporated do?TransDigm designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components critical to commercial and...