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TDGTransdigm Group IncorporatedHold5.7·$1273.86+1.42%
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Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1273.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Expensive valuation.

TransDigm Group designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components for commercial and military aircraft worldwide, with ~90% of net sales from proprietary products and ~55% from aftermarket channels in fiscal 2025, across Power & Control, Airframe,... Read more

$1273.86+7.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#11 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.17%
Stop $1200.71Target $1371.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$1524.00+19.6%20 analysts
$1371.60our TP
$1273.86price
$1524.00mean
$1200
$1937

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1273.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.6%
Expensive valuation
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.2
P/E (Fwd)26.8
Mkt Cap$70.3B
EV/EBITDA20.3
Profit Mgn21.9%
ROE
Rev Growth18.3%
Beta0.90
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C7.71bearish
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$680-46.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers40%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers for fiscal year 2025 accounted for approximately 40% of our net sales.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.9
Support Resistance
0.9
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.4
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1145.01Resistance $1288.17

Price Targets

$1201
$1372
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TDG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $1273.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $1371.60 (+7.7%), stop $1200.71 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TDG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1371.60 (+7.6% upside). Target $1371.60 (+7.7%), stop $1200.71 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $1200.71.

What are the risks of investing in TDG?

Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Expensive valuation; Below 200-day MA.

Is TDG overvalued or undervalued?

Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at a P/E of 39.2 (forward 26.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TDG?

27 analysts cover TDG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $1524.

What does Transdigm Group Incorporated do?TransDigm Group designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components for commercial and...

TransDigm Group designs, produces, and supplies highly engineered proprietary aircraft components for commercial and military aircraft worldwide, with ~90% of net sales from proprietary products and ~55% from aftermarket channels in fiscal 2025, across Power & Control, Airframe, and Non-aviation segments. No single customer exceeded 10% of net sales; the top 10 customers collectively accounted for approximately 40% of net sales.

Related stocks: FTAI (FTAI Aviation Ltd.) · HWM (Howmet Aerospace Inc.) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.) · HEI-A (Heico Corporation) · HEI (Heico Corporation)
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