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SXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.Sell5.2·$8.14+2.91%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

SunCoke Energy screens as attractively valued and technically oversold within an uptrend, but a failed asymmetry gate, thin near-term upside, and elevated options hedging keep the risk/reward unappealing.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Relative ValuationStable
  • Oversold In UptrendStable
  • Failed Asymmetry Thin UpsideStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Coking Coal

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.14: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality.

SunCoke Energy is the largest independent producer of high-quality metallurgical coke in the Americas, operating five owned cokemaking facilities in the U.S. with 3.7 million tons of annual capacity plus a licensed facility in Brazil for ArcelorMittal, alongside an Industrial... Read more

$8.14+17.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#2 of 5 Coking Coal
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.96%
IncomeYield6.14%(5y avg 4.32%)Payout64.00%
Stop $7.57Target $9.52(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$9.50+16.7%2 analysts
$9.52our TP
$8.14price
$9.50mean
$10

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.14: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About SunCoke Energy, Inc.

About SunCoke Energy, Inc.

SunCoke Energy operates five owned cokemaking facilities in the U.S.—Jewell, Indiana Harbor, Haverhill, Granite City, and Middletown—with combined nameplate capacity of roughly 3.7 million tons of blast furnace coke annually, plus a licensed facility in Vitória, Brazil with 1.7 million tons of capacity operated on behalf of ArcelorMittal Brazil. Substantially all of SunCoke's coke sales are made under long-term, take-or-pay agreements with a limited number of steelmaking customers, chiefly Cleveland-Cliffs Steel and U.S. Steel, and the Domestic Coke segment represents approximately 38% of U.S. blast furnace coke market capacity. An Industrial Services segment adds material handling, mixing, and molten slag processing for steel and coal customers across the U.S., Brazil, Slovakia, and Spain.

SunCoke's take-or-pay contracts require customers to pay for contracted coke tonnage whether or not they take delivery, and most pass through coal procurement costs, operating expenses, taxes, and transportation costs, so profitability hinges more on hitting contractual coal-to-coke yields than on coal or coke prices themselves. Metallurgical coal, the principal raw material, is purchased entirely from third parties under one-year contracts—SunCoke bought 5.6 million tons in 2025—with customers holding an overriding vote in most procurement decisions through a joint coal committee structure. Non-contracted coke produced above take-or-pay volumes is sold into North American spot and export markets, exposing that portion of output to global coke pricing and competition from Chinese, Colombian, and Indonesian merchant producers. The Industrial Services segment earns fixed and volume-based fees for handling, mixing, and slag processing, with many contracts indexed to macroeconomic adjustments to offset inflation.

Show full overview

SunCoke's customer concentration turned from disclosure into realized loss in late 2025: at the end of the third quarter, Algoma Steel breached its take-or-pay contract and refused to accept further coke tons, and by the fourth quarter SunCoke recorded a $90.1 million impairment charge at its Haverhill I facility and decided to close that plant in the first quarter of 2026, shifting the related Cliffs Steel-contracted volume to its Jewell facility instead. The event illustrates the risk the 10-K flags directly: substantially all of SunCoke's sales run through a limited customer roster, so the loss, default, or non-renewal of any single take-or-pay counterparty can force an asset-level impairment rather than just a revenue dip.

See also: Basic Materials · Coking Coal

From SunCoke Energy, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202621d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers
Concentration risk — Customer: Cliffs Steel
Target reached (-0.8% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-41.6
Mkt Cap$670M
EV/EBITDA6.2
Profit Mgn-3.5%
ROE-9.3%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta0.97
Dividend6.14%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerlimited number of customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our sales are to a limited number of customers.'
  • HIGHCustomerCliffs Steel
    10-K Item 1: 'Customers under long-term, take-or-pay agreements include Cleveland-Cliffs Steel Holding Corporation and Cleveland-Cliffs Steel LLC... collectively referred to as "Cliffs Steel"'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.4
Roa
0.8
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
7.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 6.1%

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $7.68Resistance $9.71

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+17.0%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (4 sells, 4.41% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SXC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.14: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $7.57. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SXC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.52 (+17.0% upside). Prior stop was $7.57. Stop-loss: $7.57.

What are the risks of investing in SXC?

Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Concentration risk — Customer: Cliffs Steel; Target reached (-0.8% upside).

Is SXC overvalued or undervalued?

SunCoke Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -41.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SXC?

6 analysts cover SXC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $10.

What does SunCoke Energy, Inc. do?SunCoke Energy is the largest independent producer of high-quality metallurgical coke in the Americas, operating five...

SunCoke Energy is the largest independent producer of high-quality metallurgical coke in the Americas, operating five owned cokemaking facilities in the U.S. with 3.7 million tons of annual capacity plus a licensed facility in Brazil for ArcelorMittal, alongside an Industrial Services segment that handles and mixes over 40 million tons of coal and other bulk materials annually. The majority of coke sales are made under long-term, take-or-pay agreements with steelmakers, chiefly Cleveland-Cliffs and U.S. Steel, that pass through coal costs and shield SunCoke from spot coke price swings. The com

Related stocks: HCC (Warrior Met Coal, Inc.) · AMR (Alpha Metallurgical Resources, ) · METC (Ramaco Resources, Inc.) · METCB (Ramaco Resources, Inc.)
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