Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Coking Coal
Sell if holding. At $84.95, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal; Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%).
Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of premium hard coking coal from Alabama mines (Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7, Blue Creek) to global steel manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It produced 9.3M metric tons in 2025; 56% of revenues came from its five... Read more
Sell if holding. At $84.95, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal; Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditysteelmaking coal10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our revenues are derived from the sale of steelmaking coal and our business may suffer from a substantial or extended decline in steelmaking coal pricing'
- HIGHCustomerfive largest customers56%10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 56% of our total sales revenues from our five largest customers.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved Warrior Met Coal 2026 Equity Incentive Plan at April 20, 2026 Annual Meeting; plan adopted by Board February 10, 2026. All six incumbent directors re-elected. Routine compensatory plan adoption.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $84.95, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal; Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $79.03. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $91.93 (+8.2% upside). Prior stop was $79.03. Stop-loss: $79.03.
Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal; Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.2%.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. trades at a P/E of 83.2 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover HCC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $106.
What does Warrior Met Coal, Inc. do?Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of premium hard coking coal from Alabama mines (Mine No. 4, Mine...
Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of premium hard coking coal from Alabama mines (Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7, Blue Creek) to global steel manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It produced 9.3M metric tons in 2025; 56% of revenues came from its five largest customers. The recently commissioned Blue Creek longwall expands nameplate capacity to 13.7M tons/year.