Value
9.1/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
- ▸Attractively valued
SXC · Why this verdict
Why SunCoke Energy (SXC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Value scoring flags SunCoke as attractively valued, supported by an EV/EBITDA multiple score of 8.1 out of 10. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated as the discount to intrinsic value persists or narrows in the stock's favor. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth is muted at 3.6, so the cheap valuation may reflect a genuinely slow-growth, cyclical coking-coal business rather than a mispricing. | ||
Momentum notes flag the stock as oversold in an uptrend with RSI at 18, while it still trades above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 within the next two months as the oversold condition resolves within the broader uptrend. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum gate failed outright at 3.0 versus the 4.5 threshold, and falling OBV (volume distribution) suggests sellers may be in control rather than this being a simple pullback. | ||
The asymmetry gate failed at 0.37, well below the 1.5 threshold, with only 3.3% upside against 8.7% downside, reflecting a poor near-term risk/reward. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 as upside expands relative to downside risk. | →Stable |
| CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 5.00 could reflect excessive hedging that overstates true downside risk, which if unwound could improve the effective asymmetry. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 5.00 combined with high implied volatility of 63% signals defensive positioning in the options market. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 as directional conviction firms up. | →Stable |
| CounterTotal call and put open interest are both reported as effectively zero, so the 5.00 ratio may stem from a handful of illiquid contracts rather than broad market conviction. | ||
Value scoring flags SunCoke as attractively valued, supported by an EV/EBITDA multiple score of 8.1 out of 10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated as the discount to intrinsic value persists or narrows in the stock's favor.
CounterRevenue growth is muted at 3.6, so the cheap valuation may reflect a genuinely slow-growth, cyclical coking-coal business rather than a mispricing.
Momentum notes flag the stock as oversold in an uptrend with RSI at 18, while it still trades above its 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 within the next two months as the oversold condition resolves within the broader uptrend.
CounterThe momentum gate failed outright at 3.0 versus the 4.5 threshold, and falling OBV (volume distribution) suggests sellers may be in control rather than this being a simple pullback.
The asymmetry gate failed at 0.37, well below the 1.5 threshold, with only 3.3% upside against 8.7% downside, reflecting a poor near-term risk/reward.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 as upside expands relative to downside risk.
CounterThe elevated put/call ratio of 5.00 could reflect excessive hedging that overstates true downside risk, which if unwound could improve the effective asymmetry.
An elevated put/call ratio of 5.00 combined with high implied volatility of 63% signals defensive positioning in the options market.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 as directional conviction firms up.
CounterTotal call and put open interest are both reported as effectively zero, so the 5.00 ratio may stem from a handful of illiquid contracts rather than broad market conviction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SunCoke Energy screens as attractively valued and technically oversold within an uptrend, but a failed asymmetry gate, thin near-term upside, and elevated options hedging keep the risk/reward unappealing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 30) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.9 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 6.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.10
Upside
-0.8%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Technical at 7.0, and Insider at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.3, Catalyst at 3.4, and Growth at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Relative Valuation
Trip ifValue score falls below 6.0 from the current 9.1 read, eroding the value case.
- P2Oversold In Uptrend
Trip ifRSI stays below 20 for 2 consecutive months, failing to confirm the oversold-bounce thesis.
- P3Failed Asymmetry Thin Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 0.2, down from the current 0.37 reading.
- P4Elevated Options Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 8.0 for 2 consecutive weeks.