Value
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 36.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
SXC · Why this verdict
Why SunCoke Energy (SXC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The $10.01 price is already above the $8.07 analyst target, by 19.3%, so the stock has no analyst-defined upside. Bear case | Either the analyst target should rise above $10.01 on better results, or price should fall back toward the target within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag fundamentals, and a quality-cyclical recovery in coking coal could drive estimates and targets higher. | ||
Revenue depends on a limited number of customers, with Cliffs Steel named as a concentration risk, so the loss or repricing of one contract would hit results hard. Bear case | Customer concentration should not worsen, and key contracts should be renewed over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLong-term take-or-pay style relationships with steelmakers can make concentrated revenue stable rather than risky. | ||
Earnings are mixed, with 2 beats and 2 misses in the last four quarters (a -0.11 loss in February 2026, then 0.16 vs 0.08 in July) and results due in 3 days. Earnings | EPS should meet or beat consensus in the 2026-10-27 report and in following quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe latest quarter's beat of 99% suggests earnings may be turning up from the February trough. | ||
Business quality is weak at 2.7 versus a 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat, ROE and gross margin components at 0, and a yield-trap warning on the dividend. Quality breakdown | Quality score should rise toward 4.0 and dividend safety should improve above 4.8 over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPiotroski F-Score of 6.7 and a current-ratio component of 7.8 show the balance sheet is not distressed. | ||
The value score is 7.5/10 with a PEG of 0.05, but the put/call ratio of 35 and 98% implied volatility show heavy bearish positioning. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize below 5 and value should hold above 7 as earnings recover. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 34.5x forward P/E is high for a cyclical, so the cheap PEG depends on a strong earnings rebound that may not arrive. | ||
The $10.01 price is already above the $8.07 analyst target, by 19.3%, so the stock has no analyst-defined upside.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Either the analyst target should rise above $10.01 on better results, or price should fall back toward the target within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag fundamentals, and a quality-cyclical recovery in coking coal could drive estimates and targets higher.
Revenue depends on a limited number of customers, with Cliffs Steel named as a concentration risk, so the loss or repricing of one contract would hit results hard.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Customer concentration should not worsen, and key contracts should be renewed over the next 12 months.
CounterLong-term take-or-pay style relationships with steelmakers can make concentrated revenue stable rather than risky.
Earnings are mixed, with 2 beats and 2 misses in the last four quarters (a -0.11 loss in February 2026, then 0.16 vs 0.08 in July) and results due in 3 days.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat consensus in the 2026-10-27 report and in following quarters.
CounterThe latest quarter's beat of 99% suggests earnings may be turning up from the February trough.
Business quality is weak at 2.7 versus a 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat, ROE and gross margin components at 0, and a yield-trap warning on the dividend.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise toward 4.0 and dividend safety should improve above 4.8 over 12 months.
CounterPiotroski F-Score of 6.7 and a current-ratio component of 7.8 show the balance sheet is not distressed.
The value score is 7.5/10 with a PEG of 0.05, but the put/call ratio of 35 and 98% implied volatility show heavy bearish positioning.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize below 5 and value should hold above 7 as earnings recover.
CounterThe 34.5x forward P/E is high for a cyclical, so the cheap PEG depends on a strong earnings rebound that may not arrive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.5 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:109d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.70
Upside
-24.0%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.6
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.7=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 7.6 and asymmetric R:R of -1.70.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Momentum at 7.6, and Growth at 6.2; the weakest are Quality at 2.5, Technical at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice stays above the analyst target by more than 15% for 2 consecutive quarters, with no target increase.
- P2Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifAny single customer exceeds 40% of revenue, or Cliffs Steel volumes fall by more than 20%.
- P3Inconsistent Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in the 2026-10-27 report and in at least 1 of the next 2 quarters.
- P4Low Quality Weak Moat
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 for 4 consecutive quarters, from the current 2.7.
- P5Cheap Valuation Bearish Options
Trip ifForward P/E stays above 30x while the put/call ratio exceeds 20 over the next two quarters.