The company screens attractively valued at approximately 6.8 times forward earnings with a near-zero PEG ratio, and management has demonstrated a track record of beating depressed earnings expectations, but the business derives roughly 96% of revenue from a single commodity with approximately 73% dependent on export markets, business quality sits well below the investment-grade floor, and price momentum is negative with volume distribution underway—making the setup a concentrated commodity bet with meaningful downside if coking coal conditions deteriorate.
Thesis pillars
- Met Coal Export Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Quality Below Investment Grade→Stable
- Attractive Valuation At Cyclical Trough→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, (AMR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Coking Coal
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $163.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based met coal producer operating 14 active underground mines and five surface mines across Virginia and West Virginia, with 294.5 million tons of proven and probable reserves. Met coal accounted for 96% of coal revenues in 2025, with... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $163.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Alpha Metallurgical Resources,
About Alpha Metallurgical Resources,
Alpha Metallurgical Resources produced approximately 13.7 million tons of metallurgical coal in 2025, with met coal representing 96% of coal revenues and international shipments accounting for 73% of coal revenues that year. The company operates 14 active underground mines and 5 surface mines concentrated in the Central Appalachian basin across Virginia and West Virginia, exporting through a 65.0%-owned terminal at Newport News, Virginia, with 1.7 million net tons of storage capacity. Asia was the dominant export destination, absorbing 33% of coal revenues in 2025.
Alpha earns revenue from met and thermal coal sales to domestic and international steel producers, coke manufacturers and utilities. Met coal sales mix approximately 60% long-term contracts with annual, quarterly and spot cargo arrangements; domestic contracts are typically annual fixed-price while export agreements use market-indexed monthly pricing. Thermal coal, roughly 4% of coal revenues in 2025, goes primarily to large utilities. All preparation plants draw electricity from American Electric Power, a single-utility power dependency. Principal mine-to-port logistics rely on CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern Railway Company, with rail constituting approximately 89% of shipments in 2025. Competition in the export market comes primarily from Australian and Canadian producers, while domestic competition includes other Appalachian and Illinois basin miners.
Show full overview
Customer concentration is the most quantifiable off-take risk: the 10 largest customers accounted for 77% of total revenues in 2025, with the single largest representing 14%. In March 2025, the Trump administration implemented steel tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962; while these tariffs may increase domestic met coal demand from U.S. steelmakers, retaliatory measures by foreign nations could weigh on export customers whose U.S. steel shipments face curtailment — a direct exposure given 76% of met coal tons were shipped internationally in 2025.
See also: Basic Materials · Coking Coal
From Alpha Metallurgical Resources, 's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Alpha Metallurgical Resources,
Latest news
- NEWS B. Riley Securities Maintains Neutral on Alpha Metallurgical, Lowers Price Target to $178 — benzinga Oct 26, 2026 negative
- NEWS B. Riley Trims Price Target on Alpha Metallurgical Resources to $178 From $185, Keeps Neutral Rating — fiscal.ai Oct 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Alpha Metallurgical Resources Announces Preliminary Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Alpha Metallurgical Resources Reports Q3 Preliminary Net Loss $0.73 Per Share, Coal Revenue $560.579M — benzinga Oct 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Alpha Metallurgical, Raises Price Target to $180 — benzinga Oct 8, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditymet coal96%10-K Item 1A: 'met coal accounted for 96% of our coal revenues'
- HIGHGeographicexport revenues73%10-K Item 1A: 'coal export revenues accounted for approximately 73% of our coal revenues'
- MEDIUMGeographicAsia33%10-K Item 1: 'coal sales to Asia accounting for approximately 45% and 43%, respectively, of export coal revenues and 33% and 34%, respectively, of coal revenues in each year'
- HIGHCustomertop-10 customers77%10-K Item 1A: 'coal sales to our 10 largest customers accounted for approximately 77% of our total revenues'
- LOWCustomerlargest customer14%10-K Item 1A: 'Coal sales to our largest customer during the year ended December 31, 2025 accounted for approximately 14% of our total revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -10.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $163.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $151.83. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $149.60 reached (−8.4% from $163.26); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $151.83. Stop-loss: $151.83.
Concentration risk — Commodity: met coal (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: export revenues (73.0%); Target reached (-8.4% upside).
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover AMR with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $176.
What does Alpha Metallurgical Resources, do?Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based met coal producer operating 14 active underground mines and five...
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based met coal producer operating 14 active underground mines and five surface mines across Virginia and West Virginia, with 294.5 million tons of proven and probable reserves. Met coal accounted for 96% of coal revenues in 2025, with exports representing 73% of coal revenues shipped to customers on five continents. The company holds a 65.0% interest in the Dominion Terminal Associates export terminal in Newport News, Virginia.