Alpha Metallurgical Resources, (AMR) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Coking Coal
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $178.81: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based coal mining company with operations in Virginia and West Virginia, operating 14 underground and 5 surface mines producing predominantly metallurgical coal for global steel producers. Met coal accounted for 96% of coal revenues... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $178.81: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/7 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditymet coal96%10-K Item 1A: 'met coal accounted for 96% of our coal revenues'
- HIGHGeographiccoal export revenues73%10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, coal export revenues accounted for approximately 73% of our coal revenues'
- HIGHCustomertop-10 customers77%10-K Item 1A: 'coal sales to our 10 largest customers accounted for approximately 77% of our total revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -15.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $178.81: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $170.73. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $207.76 (+16.2% upside). Prior stop was $170.73. Stop-loss: $170.73.
Concentration risk — Commodity: met coal (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: coal export revenues (73.0%); Target reached (-4.4% upside).
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover AMR with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $201.
What does Alpha Metallurgical Resources, do?Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based coal mining company with operations in Virginia and West Virginia,...
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based coal mining company with operations in Virginia and West Virginia, operating 14 underground and 5 surface mines producing predominantly metallurgical coal for global steel producers. Met coal accounted for 96% of coal revenues in 2025 and coal exports represented 73% of coal revenues. The company owns a 65% interest in Dominion Terminal Associates, a Newport News coal export terminal.