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SWSmurfit WestRock plcSell4.8·$43.32+1.48%
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Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.32: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces... Read more

$43.32+7.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#16 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.99%
IncomeYield4.18%(5y avg 3.65%)Payout242.32%at-risk
Stop $40.29Target $46.51(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$53.46+23.4%14 analysts
$46.51our TP
$43.32price
$53.46mean
$62

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.32: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14

Recent Developments — Smurfit WestRock plc

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)60.2
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$22.7B
EV/EBITDA7.6
Profit Mgn1.2%
ROE2.1%
Rev Growth0.7%
Beta0.96
Dividend4.18%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV80%elevated
Max Pain$55+27.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 418.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.2
Growth Rank
2.5
Value Rank
3.5

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
1.3
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.6
Roe
0.7
Roa
2.0
Operating Margin
2.7
Moat
4.5
Current Ratio
5.3
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 358% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.53Resistance $43.62

Price Targets

$40
$47
A.Upside+7.4%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.32: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $40.29. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.51 (+7.4% upside). Prior stop was $40.29. Stop-loss: $40.29.

What are the risks of investing in SW?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is SW overvalued or undervalued?

Smurfit WestRock plc trades at a P/E of 60.2 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SW?

25 analysts cover SW with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Smurfit WestRock plc do?Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated...

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

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