Smurfit WestRock converts 358% of net income into free cash flow and has a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, but quality is marginally below the minimum threshold at 3.7 out of 10, the company has missed earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters by an average of 23.5%, and the stock trades near its analyst target with limited upside.
Thesis pillars
- Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern↑Improving
- Quality Below Floor Value Trap Risk→Stable
- Limited Price Upside At Target↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.33: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.33: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Smurfit WestRock plc
Latest news
- NEWS Smurfit Westrock Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results and Lowers Full-Year Outlook — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Berenberg Maintains Hold Rating on Sodexo — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Smurfit WestRock Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Smurfit Westrock CEO Says In Conference Call That Mexico Demand ‘As Weak As I’ve Seen In Years’; Says U.S. October Volum — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Smurfit WestRock Q3 Adj. EPS $0.45 Misses $0.59 Estimate, Sales $8.161B Miss $8.264B Estimate — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-29T10:28:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.33: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $37.92. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $50.73 (+25.8% upside). Prior stop was $37.92. Stop-loss: $37.92.
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
Smurfit WestRock plc trades at a P/E of 44.8 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover SW with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $56.
What does Smurfit WestRock plc do?Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated...
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.