Constellation Brands has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average 6.1% upside surprise and generates 121% free cash flow conversion relative to net income, but revenue declined 11% year-over-year and the stock carries elevated debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Decline Growth Risk→Stable
- Earnings Beat And Fcf Quality→Stable
- Near Term Earnings Catalyst↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Apr 22, 2026
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $129.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Constellation Brands produces and markets beer, wine, and spirits, with the Beer segment—anchored by Modelo Especial, Corona, and Pacifico—generating $8.3 billion of $9.1 billion FY2026 net sales primarily in the U.S. Products reach consumers via U.S. wholesale distributors... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $129.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Constellation Brands, Inc.
About Constellation Brands, Inc.
Constellation Brands generated $9.1 billion in consolidated net sales for fiscal year 2026, with the Beer segment contributing $8.3 billion and the Wine and Spirits segment $824 million. The Beer portfolio—anchored by Modelo Especial (the top-selling beer in the U.S. by dollar sales), Corona Extra, and Pacifico—held the number-one position in U.S. dollar market share gains across the overall beer market. The company employed approximately 9,400 people as of February 28, 2026, including roughly 1,100 through an equally-owned joint venture with Owens-Illinois.
Constellation Brands earns beer revenue through U.S. wholesale distributors under a perpetual sub-license to import and sell its Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, and Victoria brand families, brewed at two Mexican facilities in Nava and Obregón with a third brewery under construction in Veracruz. The company spent more than $700 million on modular capacity additions in fiscal 2026 and plans to spend approximately $800 million in fiscal 2027. Packaging materials represent the largest production cost component, with glass bottles the largest packaging line item; roughly 60% of annual beer-brand glass supply comes from a Glass Plant operated through an equally-owned joint venture with Owens-Illinois adjacent to the Nava Brewery, while a single U.S. producer currently supplies most glass container requirements for domestic wine and spirits operations. The Wine and Spirits segment—repositioned to exclusively higher-end brands after the June 2025 divestiture of mainstream labels—markets Kim Crawford, Ruffino, High West, and Mi CAMPO through U.S. wholesale, direct-to-consumer, and international channels.
Show full overview
Beer production is concentrated at facilities in Nava and Obregón, Mexico, exposing Constellation Brands to tariff risk explicitly flagged in the 10-K: 'Significant new or increased tariffs...particularly on imports from Mexico, Italy, and New Zealand...could have a material adverse effect.' Canadian retaliatory restrictions on U.S. beverage alcohol sales in certain provinces represent one already-realized version of this exposure. A CEO transition—Nicholas Fink took office April 13, 2026—adds leadership uncertainty concurrent with this unresolved tariff cycle, compounding two separate risk factors for fiscal 2027 execution.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
From Constellation Brands, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Constellation Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Constellation Brands Stock: 11 Straight Red Days, Down 9.8% - Trefis — Trefis negative
- NEWS Constellation Brands Stock: 11 Straight Red Days, Down 9.8% - trefis.com — trefis.com negative
- NEWS Is Constellation Brands (STZ) Worth A Discount After Its 51% Drop? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street negative
- NEWS Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) Sets New 52-Week Low - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS STZ Maintained by Jefferies -- Price Target Lowered to $157 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductbeer brands10-K Item 1A: 'sales of our beer brands in the U.S. represent the vast majority of our business'
- MEDIUMSuppliersingle U.S. glass container producer10-K Item 1: 'Currently, one producer supplies most of our glass container requirements for our U.S. operations'
- MEDIUMSupplierOwens-Illinois Glass Plant JV10-K Item 1: 'joint venture with Owens-Illinois ... The Glass Plant supplies approximately 60% of the total annual glass bottle supply for our beer brands'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOWBoard expanded from 11 to 12 members; E. Morgan Flatley (EVP, Global Chief Marketing Officer at McDonald's) elected as director effective May 20, 2026. No officer departure; routine board appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $129.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $135.78 (+4.6%), stop $123.34 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $135.78 (+4.6% upside). Analyst target $135.78 (+4.6%), stop $123.34 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $123.34.
Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Constellation Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
29 analysts cover STZ with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $151.
What does Constellation Brands, Inc. do?Constellation Brands produces and markets beer, wine, and spirits, with the Beer segment—anchored by Modelo Especial,...
Constellation Brands produces and markets beer, wine, and spirits, with the Beer segment—anchored by Modelo Especial, Corona, and Pacifico—generating $8.3 billion of $9.1 billion FY2026 net sales primarily in the U.S. Products reach consumers via U.S. wholesale distributors under a perpetual exclusive sub-license covering all 50 states. The company employed approximately 9,400 people as of February 28, 2026.