Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Sell if holding. At $153.91, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Concentration risk — Product: beer brands.
Constellation Brands is a producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits with operations in the US, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It is the second-largest beer company in the US and holds the #1 beer brand (Modelo Especial) by dollar sales; beer brands represent the vast... Read more
Sell if holding. At $153.91, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Concentration risk — Product: beer brands. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductbeer brands10-K Item 1A: 'sales of our beer brands in the U.S. represent the vast majority of our business'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUMBoard appointed Nicholas I. Fink as President and CEO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding prior leadership. Fink had been CEO of Fortune Brands Innovations since 2020. Clean handoff with named successor and start date.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -11.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $153.91, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Concentration risk — Product: beer brands. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $145.95. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $159.79 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $145.95. Stop-loss: $145.95.
Concentration risk — Product: beer brands; Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.
Constellation Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.3 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover STZ with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $178.
What does Constellation Brands, Inc. do?Constellation Brands is a producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits with operations in the US, Mexico, New...
Constellation Brands is a producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits with operations in the US, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It is the second-largest beer company in the US and holds the #1 beer brand (Modelo Especial) by dollar sales; beer brands represent the vast majority of revenue. Wine and spirits have been repositioned to exclusively higher-end brands.