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SPIRSpire Global, Inc.Sell4.5·$14.08+1.37%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Spire Global shows standout ROE and margins on paper, but steep revenue decline, weak earnings quality, consecutive earnings misses, and notable insider selling point to real fundamental deterioration beneath the surface metrics.

Thesis pillars

  • Superior Roe Earnings Quality FlagDeteriorating
  • Declining RevenueImproving
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellQualityShortModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Business Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.08: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.

Spire Global is a space-based data and analytics company that designs, manufactures, and operates its own constellation of LEMUR nanosatellites and ground stations, monetizing radio-frequency data across space reconnaissance, aviation tracking, weather/climate forecasting, and... Read more

$14.08+26.1% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#29 of 30 Specialty Business Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-9.32%
Stop $13.09Target $17.74(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$20.88+48.3%4 analysts
$17.74our TP
$14.08price
$20.88mean
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.08: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Spire Global, Inc.

About Spire Global, Inc.

Spire Global designs, builds, and operates its own constellation of LEMUR nanosatellites — more than 200 launched since inception, with over 75 expected in orbit by the end of 2026 — feeding data into four business lines: space reconnaissance, aviation tracking, weather and climate forecasting, and Space Services. Three government customers accounted for approximately 43% of fiscal 2025 revenue, a concentration underscored in April 2026 when the Canadian government terminated for convenience Spire's WildFireSat satellite contract, worth up to Can$71.8 million if fully performed. The company employed 377 people across 9 countries as of December 31, 2025, none unionized.

Spire monetizes four tiers of data — clean, smart, predictive, and full data solutions — sold on a subscription basis with a land-and-expand model that grows revenue per customer over time, plus Space Services contracts that let other companies deploy their own payloads on Spire's satellite platform and ground-station network for a recurring fee rather than a large upfront capital outlay. On April 25, 2025, the company sold its maritime AIS-tracking business to Kpler Holding for approximately $238.9 million, using part of the proceeds to settle a dispute with L3Harris Technologies and repay its Blue Torch Finance and Strategic Innovation Fund credit facilities; it retained only the maritime services tied to U.S. federal government customers, which it expects to wind down over time. Named competitors vary by vertical — Aireon in aviation, PlanetiQ in weather/radio occultation, HawkEye360 in space reconnaissance, and Muon Space in Space Services — and the company's data business depends on continued FCC and foreign-regulator licensing of its satellite frequencies and earth stations.

Show full overview

The WildFireSat termination is a live example of the risk Spire itself flags: government contracts may be terminated or suspended at any time, with or without cause, and losing even one of the three customers that made up 43% of 2025 revenue would fall squarely within that disclosed risk. Beyond outright termination, the 10-K separately notes that sanctions, export-control changes, and geopolitical tensions have already caused third-party launch providers to shift schedules or cancel launches, delaying revenue recognition on other contracts — meaning Spire's government-heavy revenue base is exposed to two distinct mechanisms of disruption: customer-side contract cancellation and supply-side launch delay, both largely outside its control.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Business Services

From Spire Global, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-21
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202683d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-35.6
Mkt Cap$564M
EV/EBITDA-6.6
Profit Mgn-145.2%
ROE-61.7%
Rev Growth-5.9%
Beta2.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.26bearish
IV83%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerthree government customers43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 43% of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, was generated by three government customers.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-29Item 5.02MEDIUM
    COO Celia Pelaz will resign effective September 30, 2026, to pursue a new role elsewhere; the company will not replace the COO position directly and is instead searching for a Chief Commercial Officer as part of 2026 strategic priorities. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-24Item 1.02MEDIUM
    The Canadian government (PWGS) terminated for convenience, effective immediately, Spire Global Canada's contract to design and develop the WildFireSat wildfire-monitoring satellite constellation for the Canadian Space Agency; the contract could have been worth up to Can$71.8 million if fully performed.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -5.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.0
Declining revenue: -6%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
0.7
Conservative debt levels

Unprofitable operations — net margin -145.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
3.6
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Current Ratio
6.6
Cash-burning: FCF -84% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.9
Support Resistance
2.3
Bollinger
3.2
Gap
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.2
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.5>=5.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.44Resistance $15.16

Price Targets

$13
$18
A.Upside+26.1%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPIR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.08: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $13.09. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SPIR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.74 (+26.1% upside). Prior stop was $13.09. Stop-loss: $13.09.

What are the risks of investing in SPIR?

Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is SPIR overvalued or undervalued?

Spire Global, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -35.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SPIR?

10 analysts cover SPIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Spire Global, Inc. do?Spire Global is a space-based data and analytics company that designs, manufactures, and operates its own constellation...

Spire Global is a space-based data and analytics company that designs, manufactures, and operates its own constellation of LEMUR nanosatellites and ground stations, monetizing radio-frequency data across space reconnaissance, aviation tracking, weather/climate forecasting, and Space Services (satellite-as-a-service) offerings. In fiscal 2025 the company sold its maritime business to Kpler for approximately $238.9 million, and approximately 43% of continuing revenue came from just three government customers.

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