Spire Global shows standout ROE and margins on paper, but steep revenue decline, weak earnings quality, consecutive earnings misses, and notable insider selling point to real fundamental deterioration beneath the surface metrics.
Thesis pillars
- Superior Roe Earnings Quality Flag→Stable
- Declining Revenue→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Sell if holding. At $16.25, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Spire Global is a space-based data and analytics company that designs, manufactures, and operates its own constellation of LEMUR nanosatellites and ground stations, monetizing radio-frequency data across space reconnaissance, aviation tracking, weather/climate forecasting, and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $16.25, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/7 gates (earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Spire Global, Inc.
About Spire Global, Inc.
Spire Global designs, builds, and operates its own constellation of LEMUR nanosatellites — more than 200 launched since inception, with over 75 expected in orbit by the end of 2026 — feeding data into four business lines: space reconnaissance, aviation tracking, weather and climate forecasting, and Space Services. Three government customers accounted for approximately 43% of fiscal 2025 revenue, a concentration underscored in April 2026 when the Canadian government terminated for convenience Spire's WildFireSat satellite contract, worth up to Can$71.8 million if fully performed. The company employed 377 people across 9 countries as of December 31, 2025, none unionized.
Spire monetizes four tiers of data — clean, smart, predictive, and full data solutions — sold on a subscription basis with a land-and-expand model that grows revenue per customer over time, plus Space Services contracts that let other companies deploy their own payloads on Spire's satellite platform and ground-station network for a recurring fee rather than a large upfront capital outlay. On April 25, 2025, the company sold its maritime AIS-tracking business to Kpler Holding for approximately $238.9 million, using part of the proceeds to settle a dispute with L3Harris Technologies and repay its Blue Torch Finance and Strategic Innovation Fund credit facilities; it retained only the maritime services tied to U.S. federal government customers, which it expects to wind down over time. Named competitors vary by vertical — Aireon in aviation, PlanetiQ in weather/radio occultation, HawkEye360 in space reconnaissance, and Muon Space in Space Services — and the company's data business depends on continued FCC and foreign-regulator licensing of its satellite frequencies and earth stations.
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The WildFireSat termination is a live example of the risk Spire itself flags: government contracts may be terminated or suspended at any time, with or without cause, and losing even one of the three customers that made up 43% of 2025 revenue would fall squarely within that disclosed risk. Beyond outright termination, the 10-K separately notes that sanctions, export-control changes, and geopolitical tensions have already caused third-party launch providers to shift schedules or cancel launches, delaying revenue recognition on other contracts — meaning Spire's government-heavy revenue base is exposed to two distinct mechanisms of disruption: customer-side contract cancellation and supply-side launch delay, both largely outside its control.
See also: Industrials · Specialty Business Services
From Spire Global, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-08Recent Developments — Spire Global, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Spire Global Launches Ten Satellites Aboard SpaceX’s Transporter-17 Rideshare Mission — benzinga Jul 8, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-08T22:53:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerthree government customers43%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 43% of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, was generated by three government customers.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-29Item 5.02MEDIUMCOO Celia Pelaz will resign effective September 30, 2026, to pursue a new role elsewhere; the company will not replace the COO position directly and is instead searching for a Chief Commercial Officer as part of 2026 strategic priorities. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.02MEDIUMThe Canadian government (PWGS) terminated for convenience, effective immediately, Spire Global Canada's contract to design and develop the WildFireSat wildfire-monitoring satellite constellation for the Canadian Space Agency; the contract could have been worth up to Can$71.8 million if fully performed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -33.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $16.25, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.11. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.74 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $15.11. Stop-loss: $15.11.
Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).
Spire Global, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward -70.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover SPIR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $21.
What does Spire Global, Inc. do?Spire Global is a space-based data and analytics company that designs, manufactures, and operates its own constellation...
Spire Global is a space-based data and analytics company that designs, manufactures, and operates its own constellation of LEMUR nanosatellites and ground stations, monetizing radio-frequency data across space reconnaissance, aviation tracking, weather/climate forecasting, and Space Services (satellite-as-a-service) offerings. In fiscal 2025 the company sold its maritime business to Kpler for approximately $238.9 million, and approximately 43% of continuing revenue came from just three government customers.