Value
5.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
SPIR · Why this verdict
Why Spire Global (SPIR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company posts an excellent 101% ROE and 77% margins, but earnings quality carries a red flag at only 20% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion should improve within 12 months if reported earnings quality is genuine. | →Stable |
| CounterA 101% ROE combined with weak FCF conversion can indicate the reported margins are inflated by non-cash or one-time items. | ||
Revenue is declining 34% year-over-year, a steep contraction that the engine flags directly in its growth assessment. Growth breakdown | Revenue decline should moderate within the next 2 quarters if the business stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterSatellite data companies can experience lumpy, contract-driven revenue that swings sharply quarter to quarter without reflecting a structural decline. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in its last 2 reported quarters. Bear case | The company should return to a beat or in-line result within the next 2 quarters if the miss streak is temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive misses alongside a steep revenue decline suggests a structural, not temporary, earnings problem. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with 9 sell transactions totaling $1,052,464 in net value and zero buys. Insider | Insider selling intensity should decline or buying should resume over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sales represent only 0.147% of market cap, a minor severity per the engine's own classification. | ||
The engine calculates negative asymmetry at -0.25x since the analyst target has been reached, leaving limited stated upside. Reward-to-risk math | Asymmetry should turn positive again if the analyst target is revised higher or the stock pulls back. | →Stable |
| CounterA range-bound technical setup suggests the stock could break in either direction independent of the static analyst target. | ||
The company posts an excellent 101% ROE and 77% margins, but earnings quality carries a red flag at only 20% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion should improve within 12 months if reported earnings quality is genuine.
CounterA 101% ROE combined with weak FCF conversion can indicate the reported margins are inflated by non-cash or one-time items.
Revenue is declining 34% year-over-year, a steep contraction that the engine flags directly in its growth assessment.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue decline should moderate within the next 2 quarters if the business stabilizes.
CounterSatellite data companies can experience lumpy, contract-driven revenue that swings sharply quarter to quarter without reflecting a structural decline.
The company has missed earnings estimates in its last 2 reported quarters.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company should return to a beat or in-line result within the next 2 quarters if the miss streak is temporary.
CounterTwo consecutive misses alongside a steep revenue decline suggests a structural, not temporary, earnings problem.
Insiders have been net sellers over the trailing 90 days, with 9 sell transactions totaling $1,052,464 in net value and zero buys.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling intensity should decline or buying should resume over the next quarter.
CounterThe sales represent only 0.147% of market cap, a minor severity per the engine's own classification.
The engine calculates negative asymmetry at -0.25x since the analyst target has been reached, leaving limited stated upside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Asymmetry should turn positive again if the analyst target is revised higher or the stock pulls back.
CounterA range-bound technical setup suggests the stock could break in either direction independent of the static analyst target.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Spire Global shows standout ROE and margins on paper, but steep revenue decline, weak earnings quality, consecutive earnings misses, and notable insider selling point to real fundamental deterioration beneath the surface metrics.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 1.6 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 101%
- ▸Strong margins: 77%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 20% FCF/NI
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -34%
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,052,464 (0.154% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 2.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 1.6 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.97
- ▸High IV: 107%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.15%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.61
Upside
+9.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.52>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 6.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.61 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.9, Technical at 6.2, and Value at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Momentum at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline improves to less than 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Superior Roe Earnings Quality Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion rises above 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company's EPS exceeds estimates for at least 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current miss streak.
- P4Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider buying exceeds $500,000 over a rolling 90-day window, reversing the bearish signal.
- P5Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifThe analyst price target rises such that upside exceeds 10% from the current price.