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SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P.Sell5.1·$17.61-1.40%
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Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.61 — A.R:R is negative (-3.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, renewable propane, renewable natural gas, fuel oil, and refined fuels in the United States. It operates through four segments: Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined... Read more

$17.61+14.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#9 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield8.86%
IncomeYield7.28%(5y avg 7.46%)Payout66.33%
Stop $16.97Target $20.12(resistance)A.R:R -3.1:1
Analyst target$17.00-3.5%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.61 — A.R:R is negative (-3.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 18, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 39%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)9.1
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn9.6%
ROE18.8%
Rev Growth-6.2%
Beta0.36
Dividend7.28%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Revenue shrinking — -6.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.0
Earnings Growth
1.6
Declining revenue: -6%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
7.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 18, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
1.8
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R -3.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
18 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.50Resistance $20.53

Price Targets

$17
$20
A.Upside+14.3%
A.R:R-3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.9% upside)
! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.61 — A.R:R is negative (-3.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 18, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $16.97. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SPH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.12 (+14.3% upside). Prior stop was $16.97. Stop-loss: $16.97.

What are the risks of investing in SPH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SPH overvalued or undervalued?

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SPH?

9 analysts cover SPH with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. do?Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane,...

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, renewable propane, renewable natural gas, fuel oil, and refined fuels in the United States. It operates through four segments: Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels, Natural Gas and Electricity, and All Other. The Propane segment is involved in the retail distribution of propane for space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying for use as a motor fuel in internal combustion engines to power over-the-road vehicles, forklifts, and stationary engines, as well as to fire furnaces as a cutting gas to the industrial customers; and for tobacco curing, crop drying, poultry brooding, and weed control in the agricultural markets. It also engages in the wholesale distribution of propane to industrial end users. Its Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels segment engages in the retail distribution of fuel oil, diesel, kerosene, and gasoline to residential and commercial customers for use in primarily as a source of heat in homes and buildings. The Natural Gas and Electricity segment markets natural gas and electricity to residential and commercial customers in the deregulated energy markets. Its All Other segment sells, installs, and services a range of home comfort equipment, including whole-house heating products, air cleaners, humidifiers, and space heaters. The company serves residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers. Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. was founded in 1945 and is based in Whippany, New Jersey.

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