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SRSpire Inc.Sell5.8·$79.10+1.62%
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Spire Inc. (SR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.4%; Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC).

Spire Inc. is a natural gas distribution holding company with utilities in Missouri (~1.2M customers, largest in the state), Alabama (~0.4M customers), and the Gulf/Mississippi region, regulated by their respective state PUCs. Revenue also comes from gas marketing (1.22 Bcf/day)... Read more

$79.10+8.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-19.80%
IncomeYield4.17%(5y avg 4.16%)Payout65.18%
Stop $75.50Target $85.74(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$98.56+24.6%9 analysts
$85.74our TP
$79.10price
$98.56mean
$105

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.4%; Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC)
Thin upside margin: 8.4%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA13.7
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta0.54
Dividend4.17%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.91bearish
IV73%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHregulatoryMissouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC)
    10-K Item 1: 'Spire Missouri delivers natural gas to customers at rates and in accordance with tariffs authorized by the Missouri Public Service Commission ("MoPSC")'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryAlabama Public Service Commission (APSC)
    10-K Item 1: 'Spire Alabama is the largest natural gas distribution utility in the state of Alabama and is regulated by the Alabama Public Service Commission ("APSC").'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $77.83Resistance $87.14

Price Targets

$76
$86
A.Upside+8.4%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.4%; Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $75.50. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.74 (+8.4% upside). Prior stop was $75.50. Stop-loss: $75.50.

What are the risks of investing in SR?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC); Thin upside margin: 8.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is SR overvalued or undervalued?

Spire Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SR?

18 analysts cover SR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Spire Inc. do?Spire Inc. is a natural gas distribution holding company with utilities in Missouri (~1.2M customers, largest in the...

Spire Inc. is a natural gas distribution holding company with utilities in Missouri (~1.2M customers, largest in the state), Alabama (~0.4M customers), and the Gulf/Mississippi region, regulated by their respective state PUCs. Revenue also comes from gas marketing (1.22 Bcf/day) and midstream pipeline/storage.

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