Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 2.9 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸PEG: 4.34
- ▸Attractively valued
SPH · Why this verdict
Why Suburban Propane Partners (SPH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Suburban Propane Partners trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 8.9 times and is near technical oversold levels with RSI at 17, but two consecutive earnings misses, negative momentum with falling on-balance volume, and a 41% margin of safety overshoot relative to the analyst target all suggest the valuation discount may be warranted.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Suburban Propane trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 times, which the value analysis rates at 9.4 out of 10, and ranks first among peers on the price-to-earnings basis with a peer-rank value score of 9.26 out of 10, representing substantial valuation discount to the broader utilities sector. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap narrows over 12 months as the stock recovers at least 15% toward the $20.12 resistance target from the current $17.45, driven by the market re-rating the asset at a more reasonable multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterWith revenue declining roughly 6% year-over-year, weak Piotroski score of 3 out of 9, and the analyst target already reached (flagged as -17.2% upside), the cheap valuation may simply reflect deteriorating business fundamentals rather than market mispricing. | ||
With RSI at 17 — a level associated with severe overselling — near the Bollinger Band lower boundary, and a technical support/resistance score of 9.7 out of 10, the data suggests the stock may be approaching a capitulation point that historically precedes short-term rebounds. Technical breakdown | RSI recovers above 35 within 8 weeks from current levels, and the stock holds above the $16.85 stop-loss level, signaling a stabilization after the capitulation selloff. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI at 17 with falling on-balance volume and a 200-day moving average that, while still rising, is diverging from the price, suggests that selling pressure is driven by fundamentals (2 consecutive earnings misses) rather than sentiment overshooting, meaning the oversold condition could persist. | ||
Suburban Propane missed analyst earnings estimates in 2 of the 3 most recent quarters (by -6.6% in February 2026 and -6.3% in November 2025), creating a pattern of execution disappointment that has contributed to the stock's underperformance. Bear case | The company returns to beating estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, with the next quarter's surprise rising above 0%, demonstrating that the misses were weather-driven or seasonal rather than structural. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPropane distribution earnings are highly sensitive to heating degree days, and if weather patterns remain unfavorable in the company's service regions, additional misses are likely regardless of management actions. | ||
The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.8 is penalized in the bear case with a -1.0 weight, and revenue is declining at roughly -6% year-over-year, creating a combination of elevated financial leverage during a period of business contraction that limits the margin of safety for equity holders. Bear case | Revenue decline rate narrows to less than -2% year-over-year in the next reported annual period, indicating the volume loss is stabilizing, and debt coverage ratios do not deteriorate further. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA leveraged utility with declining revenues is exposed to significant multiple compression if interest rates rise or if volume declines accelerate; the propane distribution business also faces long-term structural headwinds from electrification of heating. | ||
Suburban Propane trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 times, which the value analysis rates at 9.4 out of 10, and ranks first among peers on the price-to-earnings basis with a peer-rank value score of 9.26 out of 10, representing substantial valuation discount to the broader utilities sector.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap narrows over 12 months as the stock recovers at least 15% toward the $20.12 resistance target from the current $17.45, driven by the market re-rating the asset at a more reasonable multiple.
CounterWith revenue declining roughly 6% year-over-year, weak Piotroski score of 3 out of 9, and the analyst target already reached (flagged as -17.2% upside), the cheap valuation may simply reflect deteriorating business fundamentals rather than market mispricing.
With RSI at 17 — a level associated with severe overselling — near the Bollinger Band lower boundary, and a technical support/resistance score of 9.7 out of 10, the data suggests the stock may be approaching a capitulation point that historically precedes short-term rebounds.
↑ImprovingTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 35 within 8 weeks from current levels, and the stock holds above the $16.85 stop-loss level, signaling a stabilization after the capitulation selloff.
CounterRSI at 17 with falling on-balance volume and a 200-day moving average that, while still rising, is diverging from the price, suggests that selling pressure is driven by fundamentals (2 consecutive earnings misses) rather than sentiment overshooting, meaning the oversold condition could persist.
Suburban Propane missed analyst earnings estimates in 2 of the 3 most recent quarters (by -6.6% in February 2026 and -6.3% in November 2025), creating a pattern of execution disappointment that has contributed to the stock's underperformance.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The company returns to beating estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, with the next quarter's surprise rising above 0%, demonstrating that the misses were weather-driven or seasonal rather than structural.
CounterPropane distribution earnings are highly sensitive to heating degree days, and if weather patterns remain unfavorable in the company's service regions, additional misses are likely regardless of management actions.
The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.8 is penalized in the bear case with a -1.0 weight, and revenue is declining at roughly -6% year-over-year, creating a combination of elevated financial leverage during a period of business contraction that limits the margin of safety for equity holders.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue decline rate narrows to less than -2% year-over-year in the next reported annual period, indicating the volume loss is stabilizing, and debt coverage ratios do not deteriorate further.
CounterA leveraged utility with declining revenues is exposed to significant multiple compression if interest rates rise or if volume declines accelerate; the propane distribution business also faces long-term structural headwinds from electrification of heating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.4 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 0.3 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 61% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $58,710 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 8.2 |
| put call | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.5>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.28
Upside
-18.2%
Downside
8.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeSector Rotation — Utilities sector out of favor, value=7.1
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -2.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2 and asymmetric R:R of -2.28.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, Value at 7.1, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 3.1, Catalyst at 3.2, and Quality at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Forward Pe
Trip ifRevenue decline accelerates to more than -10% year-over-year in any reported quarter, indicating the valuation discount is reflecting genuine fundamental deterioration.
- P2Extreme Oversold Bounce Potential
Trip ifPrice drops below $16.00, more than 8% below the current $17.45, indicating the capitulation level has failed to provide support.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, indicating the miss pattern is deepening rather than reversing.
- P4Leverage Revenue Decline Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.5, more than 39% above the current 1.8, indicating leverage is increasing as the business contracts.