Best-in-peer revenue growth of 32% year over year and strengthening technical momentum are undermined by negative free cash flow, quality metrics well below acceptable thresholds, three consecutive earnings misses in the quarters prior to the most recent beat, and a risk/reward of 0.3 with just 2.1% upside against 11.5% potential downside — making this a position to avoid.
Thesis pillars
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Flag→Stable
- Subfloor Quality Thin Reward↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.98: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 51.22; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Centuri Holdings provides maintenance, replacement, and installation services to electric and gas utility infrastructure in 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces through 9,687 employees at 97 locations. Approximately 78% of fiscal 2025 revenue came from long-term master... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.98: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 51.22; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Centuri Holdings, Inc.
About Centuri Holdings, Inc.
Centuri Holdings served over 400 customers during fiscal 2025 through four segments—U.S. Gas Utility Services, Canadian Operations, Union Electric Utility Services, and Non-Union Electric Utility Services—spanning 97 locations in 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces with 9,687 employees. The top 20 customers, almost exclusively investment-grade utilities including American Electric Power, Enbridge, and National Grid, represented 65% of fiscal 2025 revenues, and long-term master service agreements comprised approximately 78% of total revenue.
Centuri earns revenue through variable-priced contracts: 56% from unit-priced work and 23% from time-and-materials arrangements, with fixed-price contracts at 21% of fiscal 2025 revenues. The U.S. Gas segment maintains and replaces natural gas distribution infrastructure in both union and non-union markets across the United States. Canadian Operations covers gas and electric utilities in six provinces. Union Electric and Non-Union Electric address urban transmission and local distribution under separate labor models, with Union Electric also providing heavy industrial civil, mechanical, and fabrication services. Named competitors include Quanta Services, MYR Group, Mastec, Primoris Services Corporation, and Everus Construction Group.
Show full overview
With 48% of fiscal 2025 revenues from the top 10 customers and 65% from the top 20, Centuri's revenue is concentrated in a small group of investment-grade utilities. The 10-K notes that MSAs do not require customers to commit to minimum service volumes and may be cancelled on 30 days' notice for convenience, with specific purchase orders withdrawable on 48 hours' notice. If one or more significant customers redirected work to in-house service organizations—an option the 10-K explicitly flags as a risk—revenues could weigh on profitability. Backlog under MSAs is not a contractual commitment and may differ materially from actual revenue realized.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
From Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Centuri Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight Rating on Centuri Holdings, Adjusts Price Target — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Centuri Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $28 — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Aemetis Utilizes NPL Construction Systems for New Dairy Biogas Digesters — fiscal.ai Oct 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Centuri Holdings, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Date — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Underweight on Centuri Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $22 — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers48%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 48% of our revenues were generated collectively from our top ten customers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-20Item 5.02LOWBoard expanded from 8 to 9 members; Steven E. Nielsen elected to fill new vacancy, effective March 20, 2026. Nielsen is former CEO of Dycom Industries (1999-2024). Routine board addition, no departure, no reason cited beyond filling the new seat.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.98: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 51.22; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $19.51. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $24.51 (+16.8% upside). Prior stop was $19.51. Stop-loss: $19.51.
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).
Centuri Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 63.6 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover CTRI with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $28.
What does Centuri Holdings, Inc. do?Centuri Holdings provides maintenance, replacement, and installation services to electric and gas utility...
Centuri Holdings provides maintenance, replacement, and installation services to electric and gas utility infrastructure in 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces through 9,687 employees at 97 locations. Approximately 78% of fiscal 2025 revenue came from long-term master service agreements; the top 20 customers—almost exclusively investment-grade utilities—represented 65% of fiscal 2025 revenues.