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SIRISiriusXM Holdings Inc.Buy Wait5.6·$29.70-4.10%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

SiriusXM Holdings trades at a deeply discounted forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1x and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but high short interest of 14%, poor price momentum with RSI at 22, and a stock price above the analyst target create a difficult near-term setup.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings Beat RecordImproving
  • Deep Value At Low Forward MultipleDeteriorating
  • Oversold Rsi With Short Interest PressureDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Wait for pullback to $29.31. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $29.70. Engine's entry $29.31 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

The terms "Sirius XM Holdings," "the Company," "us," "we" and "our" as used herein and unless otherwise stated or indicated by context, refer to Sirius XM Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. "SiriusXM" refers to Sirius XM Holdings' wholly owned subsidiaries, Sirius XM Inc.,... Read more

$29.70-11.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#12 of 35 Entertainment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield9.60%
IncomeYield3.31%(5y avg 2.83%)Payout45.76%sustainable
Entry $29.31(50-day MA)Stop $28.30Target $32.01(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$30.31+2.0%13 analysts
$32.01our TP
$29.70price
$30.31mean
$20
$45

Wait for pullback to $29.31. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $29.70. Engine's entry $29.31 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.8
P/E (Fwd)9.1
Mkt Cap$10.4B
EV/EBITDA8.4
Profit Mgn9.9%
ROE7.4%
Rev Growth1.1%
Beta0.96
Dividend3.31%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV50%normal
Max Pain$20-32.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. Amendment No. 1 to Sirius XM Holdings Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.18Resistance $32.66

Price Targets

$28
$29
$32
A.Upside-11.0%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SIRI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $29.31. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $29.70. Engine's entry $29.31 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $32.01 (+7.8%), stop $28.30 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SIRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.01 (-11.0% upside). Target $32.01 (+7.8%), stop $28.30 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.6:1. Stop-loss: $28.30.

What are the risks of investing in SIRI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SIRI overvalued or undervalued?

SiriusXM Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SIRI?

21 analysts cover SIRI with a consensus score of 2.9/5. Average price target: $30.

What does SiriusXM Holdings Inc. do?The terms "Sirius XM Holdings," "the Company," "us," "we" and "our" as used herein and unless otherwise stated or...

The terms "Sirius XM Holdings," "the Company," "us," "we" and "our" as used herein and unless otherwise stated or indicated by context, refer to Sirius XM Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. "SiriusXM" refers to Sirius XM Holdings' wholly owned subsidiaries, Sirius XM Inc., Sirius XM Radio LLC and its subsidiaries, other than Pandora. "Pandora" refers to SiriusXM's wholly owned subsidiary Pandora Media, LLC and its subsidiaries.

Related stocks: CNK (Cinemark Holdings Inc Cinemark ) · SPHR (Sphere Entertainment Co.) · NWSA (News Corporation) · NWS (News Corporation) · WMG (Warner Music Group Corp.)
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