Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $126.25, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).
Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure to millions of merchants in 175+ countries across online, in-store, social media, and AI platforms; as of December 31, 2025, 44% of merchants were in the U.S., 31% in EMEA, 16% in APAC. Revenue comes from subscription plans (Basic,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $126.25, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $126.25, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $117.49. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $146.74 (+16.2% upside). Prior stop was $117.49. Stop-loss: $117.49.
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Shopify Inc. trades at a P/E of 128.9 (forward 52.8). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
56 analysts cover SHOP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $160.
What does Shopify Inc. do?Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure to millions of merchants in 175+ countries across online, in-store, social...
Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure to millions of merchants in 175+ countries across online, in-store, social media, and AI platforms; as of December 31, 2025, 44% of merchants were in the U.S., 31% in EMEA, 16% in APAC. Revenue comes from subscription plans (Basic, Grow, Shopify Plus) and merchant solutions primarily via Shopify Payments; subscriptions exceeded 90% of total revenues for 2025 and 2024. No single merchant has represented more than 5% of total revenues in any reporting period.