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SHOPShopify Inc.Sell5.9·$108.85-1.47%
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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $108.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Expensive valuation.

Shopify provides an all-in-one commerce platform serving millions of merchants in 175+ countries (44% in the U.S.), enabling online storefronts, physical retail, and multi-channel selling. Revenue comprises subscription solutions and merchant solutions, primarily Shopify... Read more

$108.85+27.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#37 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.89%
Stop $100.66Target $137.80(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$149.78+37.6%45 analysts
$137.80our TP
$108.85price
$149.78mean
$200

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $108.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 27%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)106.1
P/E (Fwd)46.4
Mkt Cap$140.5B
EV/EBITDA62.8
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth34.3%
Beta2.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts54

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00bearish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$260+138.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.9
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
2.5
Forward Pe
2.5
Peg Ratio
4.4
Analyst Target
9.0
Forward P/E: 46.4xPEG: 2.10
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $96.00Resistance $124.62

Price Targets

$101
$138
A.Upside+26.6%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHOP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $108.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Prior stop was $100.66. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SHOP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $137.80 (+27.3% upside). Prior stop was $100.66. Stop-loss: $100.66.

What are the risks of investing in SHOP?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued?

Shopify Inc. trades at a P/E of 106.1 (forward 46.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SHOP?

54 analysts cover SHOP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $150.

What does Shopify Inc. do?Shopify provides an all-in-one commerce platform serving millions of merchants in 175+ countries (44% in the U.S.),...

Shopify provides an all-in-one commerce platform serving millions of merchants in 175+ countries (44% in the U.S.), enabling online storefronts, physical retail, and multi-channel selling. Revenue comprises subscription solutions and merchant solutions, primarily Shopify Payments processing fees; no single merchant has ever exceeded 5% of total revenues.

Related stocks: FICO (Fair Isaac Corporation) · ADSK (Autodesk, Inc.) · CRM (Salesforce, Inc.) · TEAM (Atlassian Corporation) · ZM (Zoom Communications, Inc.)
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