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SFIXStitch Fix, Inc.Sell5.0·$3.57-4.03%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Stitch Fix has posted a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak with sharply rising estimates, but quality sits below the engine's floor, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a death-cross technical block, and insiders have been steady net sellers.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below FloorStable
  • Fcf Positive Moderate MarginsStable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Death CrossStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.57: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Fix is the leading online personal styling service that helps people discover the styles they will love that fit perfectly so they always look - and feel - their best.

$3.57+15.2% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#15 of 15 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.89%
Stop $3.40Target $4.09(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$4.70+31.7%5 analysts
$4.09our TP
$3.57price
$4.70mean
$3
$6

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.57: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Sep 22, 202677d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-49.3
Mkt Cap$512M
EV/EBITDA-2941.7
Profit Mgn-1.4%
ROE-9.5%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta2.26
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
4.5
Moat
4.6
Gross Margin
4.7
Current Ratio
5.5
Piotroski F
6.7
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 3%, FCF yield 6.9%)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)INSIDER 0.24%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.51Resistance $4.58

Price Targets

$3
$4
A.Upside+14.6%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 1.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-22 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFIX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.57: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $3.40. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFIX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $4.09 (+15.2% upside). Prior stop was $3.40. Stop-loss: $3.40.

What are the risks of investing in SFIX?

Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is SFIX overvalued or undervalued?

Stitch Fix, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -49.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SFIX?

12 analysts cover SFIX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $5.

What does Stitch Fix, Inc. do?Fix is the leading online personal styling service that helps people discover the styles they will love that fit...

Fix is the leading online personal styling service that helps people discover the styles they will love that fit perfectly so they always look - and feel - their best.

Related stocks: BKE (Buckle, Inc. (The)) · CRI (Carter's, Inc.) · BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.) · SHOE (Shoe Station Group, Inc.) · ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company)
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