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BKEBuckle, Inc. (The)Buy Wait6.4·$44.44-1.88%
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Buckle, Inc. (The) (BKE) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Wait for pullback to $41.69. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum, recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $44.44. Engine's entry $41.69 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Elevated risk factors.

Buckle operates 440 retail stores in 42 states, selling medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and accessories, with denim representing 42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales. Revenue comes from in-store and online merchandise sales; private label merchandise represents... Read more

$44.44+15.1% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#1 of 12 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.95%
IncomeYield3.09%(5y avg 3.40%)Payout32.11%sustainable
Entry $41.69(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $38.32Target $50.04(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1Setup A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$47.00+5.8%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Wait for pullback to $41.69. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum, recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $44.44. Engine's entry $41.69 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Buckle, Inc. (The)

About Buckle, Inc. (The)

Buckle operated 440 retail stores across 42 states at January 31, 2026, with 285 mall-based locations, 67 lifestyle centers, and 85 strip centers, targeting fashion-conscious consumers aged 15 to 30 with casual apparel, footwear, and accessories. Denim represented 42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales and tops represented 28.9%, with accessories at 10.9%. Private label merchandise — spanning approximately 22 exclusive labels including BKE, Buckle Black, Daytrip, and Departwest — accounted for roughly 47% of net sales.

Buckle's revenue model is transactional, with no franchise or licensing structure. In fiscal 2025, marketing spend totaled $23.2 million, or 1.8% of net sales, deployed through seasonal campaigns and digital programs. Private label merchandise generally earns higher margins than branded goods; shifts in mix between the two directly affect profitability. Axis Denim, which produces private label denim for Buckle, accounted for 20.6% of net sales in fiscal 2025 — the single largest vendor — with no other supplier exceeding 10% of net sales. All distribution flows through a single 240,000-square-foot facility in Kearney, Nebraska, which also houses the online fulfillment and customer service center. The company holds no long-term or exclusive contracts with brand name or private label manufacturers, and competes on customer service and fashion selection against department stores and specialty retailers.

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Buckle's performance is subject to consumer spending cycles. The 10-K identifies political conditions, economic conditions, consumer debt levels, interest rates, inflation, and consumer confidence as factors that influence individual disposable income and, in turn, net sales. The target demographic of 15-to-30-year-olds may be more sensitive to these swings than older cohorts. Additionally, denim's 42.5% share of net sales concentrates the company's revenue on a single fashion category; the 10-K notes that misjudging fashion trends or failing to react appropriately and timely could reduce net sales and profitability.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

From Buckle, Inc. (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 21, 202667d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Elevated risk factors
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.4
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn16.8%
ROE49.0%
Rev Growth6.1%
Beta0.99
Dividend3.09%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.80bearish
IV276%elevated
Max Pain$55+23.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductDenim43%
    10-K Item 1: 'Denim is a significant contributor to total sales (42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales)'
  • LOWSupplierAxis Denim21%
    10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, Axis Denim (which produces private label denim for the Company) accounted for 20.6% of net sales.'
  • MEDIUMProductprivate label merchandise47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales from private label merchandise accounted for approximately 47% of net sales in both fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2024.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Scott A. Werth appointed Senior Vice President of Stores effective March 31, 2026, promoted internally from VP of Sales and Strategy after nearly 37 years with Buckle. Routine officer appointment; no departure involved. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.65Resistance $51.06

Price Targets

$38
$42
$50
A.Upside+12.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-21 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $41.69. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum, recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $44.44. Engine's entry $41.69 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing. Target $50.04 (+12.6%), stop $38.32 (−16.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.1:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BKE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.04 (+15.1% upside). Target $50.04 (+12.6%), stop $38.32 (−16.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.1:1. Stop-loss: $38.32.

What are the risks of investing in BKE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Elevated risk factors; Below 200-day MA.

Is BKE overvalued or undervalued?

Buckle, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BKE?

9 analysts cover BKE with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Buckle, Inc. (The) do?Buckle operates 440 retail stores in 42 states, selling medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and...

Buckle operates 440 retail stores in 42 states, selling medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and accessories, with denim representing 42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales. Revenue comes from in-store and online merchandise sales; private label merchandise represents approximately 47% of net sales and earns higher margins than the branded product mix.

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