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BKEBuckle, Inc. (The)Buy Wait6.2·$44.36-0.54%
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Buckle, Inc. (The) (BKE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Wait for pullback to $41.69. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $44.36. Engine's entry $41.69 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Buckle is a specialty retailer of medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and accessories targeting fashion-conscious 15-30 year olds, operating 440 stores in 42 U.S. states as of January 31, 2026. Denim (42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and tops (28.9%) are the... Read more

$44.36+14.8% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 12 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.14%(5y avg 3.40%)Payout32.11%sustainable
Entry $41.69(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $37.96Target $50.04(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1Setup A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$47.00+6.0%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Wait for pullback to $41.69. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $44.36. Engine's entry $41.69 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Buckle, Inc. (The)

About Buckle, Inc. (The)

Buckle operated 440 retail stores across 42 states at January 31, 2026, with 285 mall-based locations, 67 lifestyle centers, and 85 strip centers, targeting fashion-conscious consumers aged 15 to 30 with casual apparel, footwear, and accessories. Denim represented 42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales and tops represented 28.9%, with accessories at 10.9%. Private label merchandise — spanning approximately 22 exclusive labels including BKE, Buckle Black, Daytrip, and Departwest — accounted for roughly 47% of net sales.

Buckle's revenue model is transactional, with no franchise or licensing structure. In fiscal 2025, marketing spend totaled $23.2 million, or 1.8% of net sales, deployed through seasonal campaigns and digital programs. Private label merchandise generally earns higher margins than branded goods; shifts in mix between the two directly affect profitability. Axis Denim, which produces private label denim for Buckle, accounted for 20.6% of net sales in fiscal 2025 — the single largest vendor — with no other supplier exceeding 10% of net sales. All distribution flows through a single 240,000-square-foot facility in Kearney, Nebraska, which also houses the online fulfillment and customer service center. The company holds no long-term or exclusive contracts with brand name or private label manufacturers, and competes on customer service and fashion selection against department stores and specialty retailers.

Show full overview

Buckle's performance is subject to consumer spending cycles. The 10-K identifies political conditions, economic conditions, consumer debt levels, interest rates, inflation, and consumer confidence as factors that influence individual disposable income and, in turn, net sales. The target demographic of 15-to-30-year-olds may be more sensitive to these swings than older cohorts. Additionally, denim's 42.5% share of net sales concentrates the company's revenue on a single fashion category; the 10-K notes that misjudging fashion trends or failing to react appropriately and timely could reduce net sales and profitability.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

From Buckle, Inc. (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 21, 202673d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA7.9
Profit Mgn16.8%
ROE49.0%
Rev Growth6.1%
Beta0.99
Dividend3.14%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.80bearish
IV173%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductDenim43%
    10-K Item 1: 'Denim is a significant contributor to total sales (42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales)'
  • LOWSupplierAxis Denim21%
    10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, Axis Denim (which produces private label denim for the Company) accounted for 20.6% of net sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Scott A. Werth appointed Senior VP of Stores effective March 31, 2026. Nearly 37-year Buckle veteran, most recently VP of Sales and Strategy. Will lead sales team of 7,000+ teammates across 42 states.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    EVP of Stores Kari G. Smith and SVP of Sales Michelle M. Hoffman retired effective February 13, 2026. No immediate successors named. Each received 26-week severance and $20K healthcare payment per Separation Agreements signed February 16-18, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.7
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.65Resistance $51.06

Price Targets

$38
$42
$50
A.Upside+12.8%
A.R:R-1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.9% upside)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-21 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $41.69. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $44.36. Engine's entry $41.69 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing. Target $50.04 (+12.8%), stop $37.96 (−16.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BKE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.04 (+14.8% upside). Target $50.04 (+12.8%), stop $37.96 (−16.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $37.96.

What are the risks of investing in BKE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is BKE overvalued or undervalued?

Buckle, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BKE?

9 analysts cover BKE with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Buckle, Inc. (The) do?Buckle is a specialty retailer of medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and accessories targeting...

Buckle is a specialty retailer of medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and accessories targeting fashion-conscious 15-30 year olds, operating 440 stores in 42 U.S. states as of January 31, 2026. Denim (42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales) and tops (28.9%) are the dominant product categories; private label (~47% of sales) produces higher margins than branded merchandise.

Related stocks: CRI (Carter's, Inc.) · ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company) · VSCO (Victorias Secret & Co.) · AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.) · BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.)
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