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SHOEShoe Station Group, Inc.Hold5.8·$15.11+0.07%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Shoe Station Group pairs a cheap valuation (8.2x forward P/E, PEG 0.22) and excellent cash conversion (129% FCF/NI, 8/9 Piotroski) with a confirmed technical downtrend — a death cross, RSI at 27, and a falling-knife setup — plus declining revenue and elevated short interest, leaving the stock in a mixed-signal hold rather than an active buy.

Thesis pillars

  • Excellent Cash ConversionStable
  • Cheap ValuationStable
  • Confirmed Falling Knife DowntrendStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Shoe Station Group, Inc. (SHOE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityShortModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Shoe Station Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. It offers various products, including dress and casual shoes, sandals, boots, and athletic shoes; and non-athletics for men's, women's and children's shoes, as... Read more

$15.11+23.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 15 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield12.00%
IncomeYield4.24%(5y avg 1.76%)Payout45.93%sustainable
Stop $14.18Target $18.70(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$22.00+45.6%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 3, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 24%
Risks
Elevated risk factors
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.9
P/E (Fwd)8.0
Mkt Cap$400M
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn3.3%
ROE5.6%
Rev Growth-2.5%
Beta1.42
Dividend4.24%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.40bearish
IV80%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierNike, Skechers, and Crocs (top three vendors)46%
    10-K Item 1: 'Nike, Inc. ("Nike"), Skechers U.S.A., Inc. ("Skechers") and Crocs, Inc. ("Crocs") collectively accounted for approximately 46% of our Net Sales in Fiscal 2025 and 48% of Net Sales in Fiscal 2024.'
  • LOWSupplierNike24%
    10-K Item 1: 'Nike accounted for approximately 24% of Net Sales in Fiscal 2025, Skechers accounted for approximately 13%, and Crocs accounted for approximately 9%.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.62Resistance $17.54

Price Targets

$14
$19
A.Upside+23.8%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-03 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SHOE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $18.70 (+23.8%), stop $14.18 (−6.6%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SHOE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.70 (+23.8% upside). Target $18.70 (+23.8%), stop $14.18 (−6.6%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $14.18.

What are the risks of investing in SHOE?

Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is SHOE overvalued or undervalued?

Shoe Station Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SHOE?

9 analysts cover SHOE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Shoe Station Group, Inc. do?Shoe Station Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States....

Shoe Station Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. It offers various products, including dress and casual shoes, sandals, boots, and athletic shoes; and non-athletics for men's, women's and children's shoes, as well as accessories. The company also operates stores. It sells its products through www.shoecarnival.com and www.shoestation.com, as well as through related mobile app. The company was formerly known as Shoe Carnival, Inc. and changed its name to Shoe Station Group Inc. in June 2026. Shoe Station Group Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Fort Mill, South Carolina.

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