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RXORXO, Inc.Sell3.6·$28.35-0.53%
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RXO, Inc. (RXO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.35: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality.

RXO is an asset-light truck brokerage and transportation platform, connecting shippers with carriers. It is the largest provider of outsourced last mile transportation for heavy goods in the US, served by 9,218 team members. Revenue comes from brokerage commissions, managed... Read more

$28.35+3.2% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#9 of 9 Trucking
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield1.39%
Stop $26.37Target $29.26(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$21.53-24.0%15 analysts
$29.26our TP
$28.35price
$21.53mean
$13

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.35: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-31.6% upside)
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -20.1%), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)58.5
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA57.2
Profit Mgn-1.8%
ROE-6.8%
Rev Growth-0.6%
Beta1.97
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$3-91.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerlargest customer11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from our largest customer represented approximately $653 million, or 11.4%, of total revenue'
  • LOWCustomertop five customers23%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top 20 customers in total and our top five customers in total accounted for approximately 37% and 23% of our revenue, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
4.8
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Revenue shrinking — -0.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
2.2
Value Rank
8.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesA.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.85Resistance $29.86

Price Targets

$26
$29
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-31.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -20.1%), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RXO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.35: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $26.37. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the RXO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.26 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $26.37. Stop-loss: $26.37.

What are the risks of investing in RXO?

Target reached (-31.6% upside); Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -20.1%), Negative free cash flow.

Is RXO overvalued or undervalued?

RXO, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 58.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RXO?

23 analysts cover RXO with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $22.

What does RXO, Inc. do?RXO is an asset-light truck brokerage and transportation platform, connecting shippers with carriers. It is the largest...

RXO is an asset-light truck brokerage and transportation platform, connecting shippers with carriers. It is the largest provider of outsourced last mile transportation for heavy goods in the US, served by 9,218 team members. Revenue comes from brokerage commissions, managed transportation fees, and last mile service fees from diverse industry verticals.

Related stocks: ARCB (ArcBest Corporation) · XPO (XPO, Inc.) · TFII (TFI International Inc.) · SNDR (Schneider National, Inc.) · WERN (Werner Enterprises, Inc.)
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