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RIORio Tinto PlcSell6.0·$107.04+1.60%
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Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.04 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia.... Read more

$107.04+4.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 21 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.04%
IncomeYield3.82%(5y avg 7.60%)Payout61.31%
Stop $99.25Target $109.96(resistance)A.R:R -2.3:1
Analyst target$102.87-3.9%7 analysts
$109.96our TP
$107.04price
$102.87mean
$84
$125

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.04 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Rio Tinto Plc

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.3
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$171.3B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn17.3%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth14.6%
Beta0.65
Dividend3.82%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -2.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $98.43Resistance $112.20

Price Targets

$99
$110
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R-2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.04 — A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $99.25. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RIO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $109.96 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $99.25. Stop-loss: $99.25.

What are the risks of investing in RIO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is RIO overvalued or undervalued?

Rio Tinto Plc trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIO?

33 analysts cover RIO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $103.

What does Rio Tinto Plc do?Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through...

Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia. The Aluminum and lithium segment is involved in bauxite mining; alumina refining; and aluminium smelting, and recycling, as well as mining and processing of lithium. The Copper segment engages in mining and refining of copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other by-products and exploration activities. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines; and refineries, smelters, processing plants and power, and shipping facilities. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Related stocks: TECK (Teck Resources Ltd) · VALE (VALE S.A.) · BHP (BHP Group Limited) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited)
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