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BHPBHP Group LimitedSell5.8·$92.04+1.34%
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BHP Group Limited (BHP) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $92.04 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.8% away).

BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper,... Read more

$92.04-0.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 21 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.53%
IncomeYield2.93%(5y avg 7.08%)Payout54.64%sustainable
Stop $86.15Target $91.83(resistance)A.R:R -2.8:1
Analyst target$70.36-23.6%7 analysts
$91.83our TP
$92.04price
$70.36mean
$56

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $92.04 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — BHP Group Limited

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 17, 202663d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.8% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.6
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$230.7B
EV/EBITDA9.6
Profit Mgn19.0%
ROE24.7%
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta0.82
Dividend2.93%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.95neutral
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -2.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $80.98Resistance $93.70

Price Targets

$86
$92
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-33.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-17 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BHP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $92.04 — A.R:R is negative (-2.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $86.15. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BHP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $91.83 (-0.2% upside). Prior stop was $86.15. Stop-loss: $86.15.

What are the risks of investing in BHP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.8% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is BHP overvalued or undervalued?

BHP Group Limited trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BHP?

24 analysts cover BHP with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $70.

What does BHP Group Limited do?BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia,...

BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. In addition, the company is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities. Further, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. BHP Group Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

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