Redwire is a small-cap aerospace and defense company with 58% revenue growth and institutional accumulation, but a quality score of 1.8 out of 10, three earnings misses in the last four quarters including a negative 840% miss, a short interest of 22%, and negative price momentum collectively make the fundamental risk profile deeply unfavorable despite surface-level growth metrics.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor Cash Burn→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern↓Deteriorating
- High Short Interest And Implied Volatility↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Redwire Corporation (RDW) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.16: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Redwire is a space and defense technology company with two segments: Space (spacecraft, solar arrays, microgravity payloads) and Defense Tech (UAS, sensors). Its contracted backlog was $411.2 million at December 31, 2025; revenue split across national security (46.9%),... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.16: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Redwire Corporation
About Redwire Corporation
Redwire's contracted backlog of $411.2 million at December 31, 2025 — $299.8 million in the Space segment and $111.4 million in the Defense Tech segment — provided near-term revenue visibility for an integrated space and defense technology company operating out of 28 locations in North America and Europe. In fiscal 2025, national security customers contributed 46.9% of revenue, commercial customers 31.5%, and civil customers 21.6%, while 41.6% of revenue came from customers outside the United States.
Redwire earns revenue through fixed-price, cost-plus, and time-and-material contracts across two segments. The Space segment delivers next-generation spacecraft platforms (SabreSat, Phantom, Hammerhead, Thresher, and Mako), patented Roll-Out Solar Array power generation systems, 11 active microgravity payload facilities on the International Space Station, and digital engineering software. The Defense Tech segment — built around the 2025 acquisition of Edge Autonomy — offers the Stalker UAS (granted an Authority to Operate by the Defense Innovation Unit in July 2025 and added to its Blue UAS List), the Penguin C series, and the Octopus line of optical gimbal ISR payloads deployed in approximately 80 countries. The company competes against AeroVironment, Insitu (a Boeing company), Shield AI, and Anduril Industries for UAS contracts, and against Airbus, Sodern, and Rocket Lab USA for space components. Research and development expenses totaled $19.8 million in fiscal 2025.
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Redwire's dependence on U.S. government and allied nation contracts exposes the company to program termination and funding risk: the 10-K discloses that government contracts are often only partially funded and subject to immediate termination, and that national security customers accounted for 46.9% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Budget pressures driven by federal deficit dynamics or shifts in DoD spending priorities could reduce contract awards, and the filing also identifies material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting that, if unresolved, could affect the accuracy and timeliness of reported results. The company's exposure to tariff-related supply chain cost increases — particularly for components sourced from European manufacturing facilities — adds further uncertainty to cost forecasting.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Redwire Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Redwire Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Redwire Corporation to Report Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 4, 2026 — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026
- NEWS Redwire Deepens European Presence with EnduroSat Partnership — benzinga Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Redwire and EnduroSat Sign MoU to Support European Space Infrastructure Development — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Redwire Announces MOU With EnduroSat To Jointly Pursue European Government, Defense And Commercial Space Missions — benzinga Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS This Eloxx Pharmaceuticals Analyst Begins Coverage On A Bullish Note; Here Are Top 5 Initiations For Thursday — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-30T11:27:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomernational security customers47%10-K Item 1: 'we generated 46.9% of our revenue from national security customers'
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational customers42%10-K Item 1: 'revenues from customers located outside of the United States accounted for 41.6%'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOWFrank Calvelli appointed to Redwire Corporation Board of Directors effective March 12, 2026, filling a vacancy from previously announced resignations. Named Class III director with term expiring at 2027 Annual Meeting. Board determined Calvelli is independent under NYSE listing standards.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -57.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.16: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10 and A.R:R 2.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $8.52. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $12.42 (+35.6% upside). Prior stop was $8.52. Stop-loss: $8.52.
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).
Redwire Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -28.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover RDW with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $14.
What does Redwire Corporation do?Redwire is a space and defense technology company with two segments: Space (spacecraft, solar arrays, microgravity...
Redwire is a space and defense technology company with two segments: Space (spacecraft, solar arrays, microgravity payloads) and Defense Tech (UAS, sensors). Its contracted backlog was $411.2 million at December 31, 2025; revenue split across national security (46.9%), commercial (31.5%), and civil (21.6%) customers, with 41.6% sourced internationally.