Skip to main content
RCATRed Cat Holdings, Inc.Sell4.3·$11.49-0.04%
Open full analysis

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.49: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Red Cat Holdings is a U.S.-based provider of drone and robotic systems for defense and public safety, with products including the Black Widow/Teal 2 sUAS (selected for U.S. Army's Short Range Reconnaissance Program of Record in Nov 2024), the FANG FPV drone, FlightWave VTOL... Read more

$11.49+68.6% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#46 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-5.10%
Stop $10.56Target $19.14(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.6:1
Analyst target$22.00+91.5%6 analysts
$19.14our TP
$11.49price
$22.00mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.49: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10

Recent Developments — Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202664d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Federal Government military agencies
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-31.9
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA-16.4
Profit Mgn-138.4%
ROE-56.4%
Rev Growth849.1%
Beta1.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.20bearish
IV116%elevated
Max Pain$3-73.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Federal Government military agencies
    10-K Item 1: 'Our sales and marketing efforts have been focused on developing relationships with the military agencies of the U.S. Federal Government.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -138.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -163% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.0
Macd
6.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.3
Value Rank
0.4
Growth Rank
10.0
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 4.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.36Resistance $15.79

Price Targets

$11
$19
A.Upside+66.6%
A.R:R4.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RCAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.49: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.56. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RCAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.14 (+68.6% upside). Prior stop was $10.56. Stop-loss: $10.56.

What are the risks of investing in RCAT?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Federal Government military agencies; Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is RCAT overvalued or undervalued?

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -31.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RCAT?

11 analysts cover RCAT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Red Cat Holdings, Inc. do?Red Cat Holdings is a U.S.-based provider of drone and robotic systems for defense and public safety, with products...

Red Cat Holdings is a U.S.-based provider of drone and robotic systems for defense and public safety, with products including the Black Widow/Teal 2 sUAS (selected for U.S. Army's Short Range Reconnaissance Program of Record in Nov 2024), the FANG FPV drone, FlightWave VTOL fixed-wing ISR aircraft, and Blue Ops uncrewed surface vessels. Sales are primarily to U.S. military agencies; the company had 244 employees as of December 31, 2025 and an accumulated deficit of $196.8M. Revenue is transactional with no long-term purchase commitments.

Related stocks: LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.) · VVX (V2X, Inc.) · CDRE (Cadre Holdings, Inc.) · VSEC (VSE Corporation)
Home Stocks RCAT

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga6d ago
Benzinga7d agoProduct
Benzinga10d ago
Benzinga13d agoProduct
Benzinga15d ago
Benzinga18d ago
Benzinga18d ago
Benzinga18d ago
Benzinga18d ago
Benzinga18d agoProduct
Benzinga18d ago
Benzinga18d ago
Benzinga18d ago
Benzinga19d ago
Benzinga20d agoAnalyst
Benzinga20d ago
Benzinga24d ago
Benzinga27d ago
Benzinga33d ago
Benzinga33d ago
Loading more...