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QFINQfin Holdings, Inc.Sell5.6·$14.45-0.55%
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Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Qfin Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operate AI- driven credit-tech platform under the Qifu Jietiao brand in the People's Republic of China. The company provides credit-driven services that match borrowers with financial institutions to conduct borrower... Read more

$14.45+32.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#23 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield568.42%
IncomeYield10.79%Payout27.23%sustainable
Stop $13.27Target $18.87(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$21.69+50.1%13 analysts
$18.87our TP
$14.45price
$21.69mean
$30

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Qfin Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202665d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.1 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
High-quality business
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)2.5
P/E (Fwd)3.0
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA-0.0
Profit Mgn27.5%
ROE21.3%
Rev Growth-16.7%
Beta0.57
Dividend10.79%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.75bearish
IV87%elevated
Max Pain$3-82.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -16.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -17%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.6
Support Resistance
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)INSIDER 0.16%=MODERATEA.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.31Resistance $17.25

Price Targets

$13
$19
A.Upside+30.6%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QFIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $13.27. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the QFIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.87 (+32.2% upside). Prior stop was $13.27. Stop-loss: $13.27.

What are the risks of investing in QFIN?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Weak growth.

Is QFIN overvalued or undervalued?

Qfin Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 2.5 (forward 3.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QFIN?

19 analysts cover QFIN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Qfin Holdings, Inc. do?Qfin Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operate AI- driven credit-tech platform under the Qifu Jietiao...

Qfin Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operate AI- driven credit-tech platform under the Qifu Jietiao brand in the People's Republic of China. The company provides credit-driven services that match borrowers with financial institutions to conduct borrower acquisition, credit assessment, fund matching, and post-facilitation services; and platform services, including loan and post-facilitation services to financial institution partners under capital light model, intelligence credit engine, referral services, and other technology solutions. It serves financial institutions, consumers, and small and micro-enterprises. The company was formerly known as Qifu Technology, Inc. and changed its name to Qfin Holdings, Inc. in July 2025. Qfin Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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