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PSMTPriceSmart, Inc.Sell5.3·$161.46
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

PriceSmart operates a membership-based discount warehouse model with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a strong economic moat score of 6.2, but the stock has exceeded its analyst target by 27.5%, earnings quality is poor (44% free cash flow conversion), and RSI at 72 signals near-term overbought conditions.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Exceeded Overbought Entry→Stable
  • Poor Earnings Quality Fcf Gap↑Improving
  • Membership Model Moat Piotroski↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Oct 30, 2025

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5QualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $161.46: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 4.14; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

PriceSmart was founded in 1996 by Sol and Robert Price, the creators of Price Club, the original warehouse club operator. The mission of PriceSmart is to operate its warehouse club business in Central America, the Caribbean and South America at operating standards as good as, or... Read more

$161.46-4.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#7 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.02%
IncomeYield0.87%(5y avg 1.10%)Payout25.93%sustainable
Stop $156.48Analyst target $154.28(reached)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst consensus$181.50+12.4%2 analysts
$161.46price
$181.50mean
$198

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $161.46: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 4.14; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — PriceSmart, Inc.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jan 6, 202769d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-4.5% upside)
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.9
P/E (Fwd)25.2
Mkt Cap$5.0B
EV/EBITDA13.4
Profit Mgn2.8%
ROE12.3%
Rev Growth13.9%
Beta0.74
Dividend0.87%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.14bearish
IV42%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
7.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $161.32Resistance $177.49

Price Targets

A.Upside-4.5%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-06 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PSMT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $161.46: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 4.14; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $156.48. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PSMT stock price target?

Analyst target $154.28 reached (−4.5% from $161.46); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $156.48. Stop-loss: $156.48.

What are the risks of investing in PSMT?

Target reached (-4.5% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is PSMT overvalued or undervalued?

PriceSmart, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.9 (forward 25.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PSMT?

10 analysts cover PSMT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $182.

What does PriceSmart, Inc. do?PriceSmart was founded in 1996 by Sol and Robert Price, the creators of Price Club, the original warehouse club...

PriceSmart was founded in 1996 by Sol and Robert Price, the creators of Price Club, the original warehouse club operator. The mission of PriceSmart is to operate its warehouse club business in Central America, the Caribbean and South America at operating standards as good as, or superior to, warehouse club operations in the United States.

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