Pool Corporation carries an excellent 34% return on equity and beats earnings in 3 of 4 quarters, but a death cross in place, a put-to-call ratio of 4.53, and heavy geographic concentration in four states combine with flat top-line growth to make this a hold-only situation with meaningful near-term downside risk.
Thesis pillars
- High Roe Peer Quality↑Improving
- Death Cross And Weak Momentum→Stable
- Geographic Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Pool Corporation (POOL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $195.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products, operating 456 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia as of December 31, 2025. Approximately 95% of 2025 sales came from North... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $195.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Pool Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Pool Corp earnings up next as margin pressure tests distributor By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Stock Could Be 22.6% Undervalued as Recurring Demand Supports Fair Value - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia, Florida, Texas and Arizona53%10-K Item 1: 'Our primary markets with the highest concentration of swimming pools are California, Florida, Texas and Arizona, collectively representing approximately 53% of our 2025 net sales'
- LOWSupplierPentair plc10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- LOWSupplierZodiac Pool Systems10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- LOWSupplierHayward Holdings10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUMPeter D. Arvan and Pool Corporation mutually agreed he would cease as President and CEO effective May 4, 2026. John B. Watwood (joined Jan 2026 as EVP) appointed President and CEO. Arvan also resigned from the Board. No disagreement with company operations cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWAmendment No. 1 to May 4, 2026 8-K providing separation agreement details for Peter Arvan's departure: 54 weeks base salary, 12 months health insurance reimbursement, potential vesting of up to 55,156 performance RSAs and 21,870 RSAs subject to non-competition compliance.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $195.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $182.12 reached (−6.9%), stop $181.97 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $182.12 reached (−6.9% from $195.59); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $182.12 reached (−6.9%), stop $181.97 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $181.97.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Pool Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts cover POOL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $209.
What does Pool Corporation do?Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure...
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products, operating 456 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia as of December 31, 2025. Approximately 95% of 2025 sales came from North America through five distribution networks serving roughly 125,000 customers, primarily pool service businesses, builders, and specialty retailers.