Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 1.1 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.4x
- ▸PEG: 7.34
POOL · Why this verdict
Why Pool (POOL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 2.9 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 34%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 55% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.4 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 7.1 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $4,964,297 (0.073% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.1 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 0.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.05
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 280.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.73
Upside
+23.0%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Momentum at 6.2, and Insider at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 3.2, Technical at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.