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PMTPennyMac Mortgage Investment TrHold5.3·$10.25+3.64%
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PennyMac Mortgage Investment Tr (PMT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum.

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company operates through: Credit Sensitive Strategies, Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies, and Correspondent Production segments. The... Read more

$10.25+4.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#11 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield15.81%(5y avg 12.21%)Payout137.93%
Stop $9.62Target $10.53(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$12.11+18.1%7 analysts
$10.53our TP
$10.25price
$12.11mean
$15

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.7
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$882M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn21.1%
ROE7.6%
Rev Growth-24.1%
Beta1.11
Dividend15.81%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV61%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 1581.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.83Resistance $10.60

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PMT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $10.53 (+2.7%), stop $9.62 (−6.5%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.53 (+4.1% upside). Target $10.53 (+2.7%), stop $9.62 (−6.5%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $9.62.

What are the risks of investing in PMT?

Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum.

Is PMT overvalued or undervalued?

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Tr trades at a P/E of 8.7 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PMT?

13 analysts cover PMT with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $12.

What does PennyMac Mortgage Investment Tr do?PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in...

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company operates through: Credit Sensitive Strategies, Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies, and Correspondent Production segments. The Credit Sensitive Strategies segment invests in credit risk transfer (CRT) agreements and subordinate and credit-linked mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies segment engages in investing in mortgage servicing rights, agency and senior non-agency MBS, and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), as well as interest rate hedging activities. The Correspondent Production segment is involved in purchasing, pooling, and reselling newly originated prime credit quality loans directly or in the form of MBS. The company primarily sells its loans to government-sponsored enterprises. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). It is not subject to U.S. federal income tax on the REIT taxable income it distributes to its shareholders. PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.

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