Packaging Corporation of Americ (PKG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $216.64 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%).
Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America, operating ten mills and 91 corrugated plants. Revenue comes from selling containerboard, corrugated products, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $216.64 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-11Recent Developments — Packaging Corporation of Americ
Latest news
- NEWS Packaging Corp. (PKG) Q1 Earnings Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS PACKAGING OF AMERICA ($PKG) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Packaging Corp. (PKG) Reports Q1 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Reports Strong Q1 Earnings - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Packaging Corp of America tops profit estimates as box demand improves (PKG:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerODP Corporation58%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, our sales revenue to ODP represented 58% of our Paper segment sales revenue and 4% of our consolidated sales revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOWPaul T. Stecko notified Board of intent to retire and not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting; no disagreement cited. Fabian C. Strauss promoted to SVP Finance, Controller & Treasurer as principal accounting officer, effective March 1, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $216.64 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $205.00. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $223.33 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $205.00. Stop-loss: $205.00.
Concentration risk — Customer: ODP Corporation (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).
Packaging Corporation of Americ trades at a P/E of 27.6 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover PKG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $236.
What does Packaging Corporation of Americ do?Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of...
Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest producer of containerboard products and a leading producer of uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper in North America, operating ten mills and 91 corrugated plants. Revenue comes from selling containerboard, corrugated products, and UFS paper to approximately 12,000 customers across roughly 27,000 locations; $7.7 billion in total costs in 2025.