PulteGroup trades at an attractive forward P/E of 11.0x with 3 of 4 recent earnings beats, but is trapped in a death cross technical pattern with revenue declining 12% and a weak overall score of 4.6, making new entry unattractive at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Floor↓Deteriorating
- Revenue Decline Growth Concern→Stable
- Death Cross Hard Block↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 4, 2026
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.71 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).
PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."),... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.71 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — PulteGroup, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PulteGroup (PHM) Posted Weaker Q2 Earnings, Is The Stock Still Undervalued? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS America's Housing Market Is Cooling, But PulteGroup Just Beat Anyway - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS PulteGroup second quarter earnings fall to $2.48 per share - grafa.com — grafa.com negative
- NEWS PulteGroup (PHM) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS PulteGroup shares decline despite second-quarter earnings beat (NYSE:PHM) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Quality Signals
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -9.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.71 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $112.15. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $119.59 reached (−0.1% from $119.71); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $112.15. Stop-loss: $112.15.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
PulteGroup, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover PHM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $133.
What does PulteGroup, Inc. do?PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder,...
PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."), and our common shares are included in the S&P 500 Index and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "PHM".