PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. At $116.88, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Weak overall score: 4.5/10.
PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."),... Read more
Sell if holding. At $116.88, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-09Item 5.02MEDIUMDEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS** On February 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of PulteGroup, Inc.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -12.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $116.88, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $110.32. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $119.62 (+3.9% upside). Prior stop was $110.32. Stop-loss: $110.32.
Thin upside margin: 3.9%; Weak overall score: 4.5/10; Weak growth.
PulteGroup, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover PHM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $138.
What does PulteGroup, Inc. do?PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder,...
PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."), and our common shares are included in the S&P 500 Index and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "PHM".