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DEDeere & CompanyHold4.2·$577.33+0.64%
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Deere & Company (DE) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $577.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Deere & Company manufactures agricultural equipment (PPA: $17.3B, SAT: $10.2B; 71% of equipment net sales) and construction/forestry equipment (CF: $11.4B; 29%), plus financial services. Tariffs directly impacted product and component costs by approximately $600M in FY2025.... Read more

$577.33+0.4% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#13 of 13 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield0.70%
IncomeYield1.12%(5y avg 1.24%)Payout36.71%sustainable
Stop $538.95Target $579.79(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$644.21+11.6%23 analysts
$579.79our TP
$577.33price
$644.21mean
$500
$759

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $577.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Deere & Company

About Deere & Company

Deere & Company's equipment operations recorded approximately $38.9 billion in net sales for fiscal year 2025, split across Production & Precision Agriculture (PPA, 45%), Construction & Forestry (CF, 29%), and Small Agriculture & Turf (SAT, 26%). About 2,050 independent dealer locations serve the U.S. and Canada alongside additional global dealer networks. Unfavorable agricultural market conditions in 2025 drove lower sales volumes and elevated receivable write-offs, with the company expecting certain of those conditions to persist into fiscal year 2026.

Deere earns revenue through equipment sales and aftermarket parts and services, with its Financial Services segment providing retail notes, revolving charge accounts, wholesale receivables, and leases to finance a significant portion of equipment sales worldwide. The PPA and SAT segments — representing 71% of equipment operations combined — are highly cyclical, with demand driven by farm commodity prices, farm income, and government agricultural policies. The CF segment competes globally against Caterpillar Inc., Komatsu Ltd., and Volvo Construction Equipment, while the agricultural segments compete with AGCO Corporation, CLAAS KGaA mbH, CNH Industrial N.V., and Kubota Tractor Corporation. Nearly 80% of domestic U.S. sales are assembled domestically; certain compact construction products shifted to Mexico in 2024 became subject to additional tariffs in 2025, prompting the company to pursue USMCA qualification to mitigate elevated costs. Precision technology embedded in equipment and delivered through the John Deere Operations Center represents a growing aftermarket and lifecycle-solutions revenue stream.

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A raw material dependency flagged specifically in the 10-K concerns rare earth minerals: certain products including motors and batteries rely on rare earths, a significant majority of which are sourced from China. The 10-K warns that inability to obtain export permits for these minerals could have a detrimental effect on the business. This supply risk compounds a tariff exposure the company quantified directly: incremental import tariffs incurred in fiscal year 2025 totaled approximately $600 million, excluding the indirect effect on supplier costs and market demand. Retaliatory tariffs from trade partners on U.S.-exported products could further weigh on agricultural equipment profits if enacted or expanded.

See also: Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

From Deere & Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202670d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.7
P/E (Fwd)25.3
Mkt Cap$155.9B
EV/EBITDA22.7
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE18.3%
Rev Growth-11.1%
Beta0.93
Dividend1.12%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.17bearish
IV43%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    T. Brent Norwood, age 44, appointed SVP and CFO effective May 1, 2026, replacing acting CFO Ryan Campbell, who continues as President, Worldwide Construction & Forestry and Power Systems. Norwood previously VP & Finance Director, Construction & Forestry.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved one-time PSU grants to named executive officers and certain senior officers on approximately March 19, 2026, under the 2020 Equity and Incentive Plan. Performance period runs through October 2030 based on SVA targets. Compensatory arrangement only.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -11.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.3
Declining revenue: -11%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Value Rank
1.9
Quality Rank
7.3
GatesA.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $515.15Resistance $604.51

Price Targets

$539
$580
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $577.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $579.79 (+0.4%), stop $538.95 (−7.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.

What is the DE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $579.79 (+0.4% upside). Target $579.79 (+0.4%), stop $538.95 (−7.1%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $538.95.

What are the risks of investing in DE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is DE overvalued or undervalued?

Deere & Company trades at a P/E of 32.7 (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DE?

34 analysts cover DE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $644.

What does Deere & Company do?Deere & Company manufactures agricultural equipment (PPA: $17.3B, SAT: $10.2B; 71% of equipment net sales) and...

Deere & Company manufactures agricultural equipment (PPA: $17.3B, SAT: $10.2B; 71% of equipment net sales) and construction/forestry equipment (CF: $11.4B; 29%), plus financial services. Tariffs directly impacted product and component costs by approximately $600M in FY2025. Nearly 80% of domestic sales are assembled in the U.S.; equipment sold globally through ~2,050 independent dealer locations in the U.S. and Canada.

Related stocks: CAT (Caterpillar, Inc.) · PCAR (PACCAR Inc.) · AER (AerCap Holdings N.V.) · ZTO (ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.) · VRT (Vertiv Holdings, LLC)
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