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Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $70.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%).

Prosperity Bancshares operates 283 banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma, providing financial products to businesses and consumers through its Prosperity Bank subsidiary. Revenue is primarily net interest income on a diversified loan portfolio spanning commercial real... Read more

$70.14-0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#67 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $67.03Target $69.59(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$77.38+10.3%13 analysts
$69.59our TP
$70.14price
$77.38mean
$68
$85

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $70.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma
Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$7.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn40.4%
ROE6.7%
Rev Growth19.9%
Beta0.67
Dividend3.42%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$60-14.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas and Oklahoma
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's success depends primarily on the general economic conditions of the primary markets in Texas and Oklahoma in which it operates and where its loans are concentrated.'
  • HIGHTenantreal estate loan portfolio80%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 80.0% of the Company's total loans as of December 31, 2025, consisted of loans included in the real estate loan portfolio'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $66.44Resistance $71.01

Price Targets

$67
$70
A.Upside-0.8%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.0% upside)
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $70.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $69.59 (-0.8%), stop $67.03 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.59 (-0.7% upside). Target $69.59 (-0.8%), stop $67.03 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $67.03.

What are the risks of investing in PB?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas and Oklahoma; Concentration risk — Tenant: real estate loan portfolio (80.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is PB overvalued or undervalued?

Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PB?

23 analysts cover PB with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $77.

What does Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. do?Prosperity Bancshares operates 283 banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma, providing financial products to...

Prosperity Bancshares operates 283 banking locations across Texas and Oklahoma, providing financial products to businesses and consumers through its Prosperity Bank subsidiary. Revenue is primarily net interest income on a diversified loan portfolio spanning commercial real estate, residential, and construction. The Bank has been profitable every year of its existence, including during periods of adverse economic conditions in Texas and Oklahoma.

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