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ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.Sell5.5·$90.86-0.18%
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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $90.86: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts in North America, operating 6,447 stores in 48 US states plus 112 in Mexico and 26 in Canada as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is split approximately 50/50 between DIY and professional... Read more

$90.86+9.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#14 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.76%
Stop $86.69Target $99.19(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$110.21+21.3%24 analysts
$99.19our TP
$90.86price
$110.21mean
$120

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $90.86: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.2%
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.6
P/E (Fwd)25.2
Mkt Cap$75.4B
EV/EBITDA20.5
Profit Mgn14.3%
ROE
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta0.52
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.27bearish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$150+65.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $85.35Resistance $93.77

Price Targets

$87
$99
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts36
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$110

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORLY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $90.86: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $86.69. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ORLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $99.19 (+9.3% upside). Prior stop was $86.69. Stop-loss: $86.69.

What are the risks of investing in ORLY?

Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ORLY overvalued or undervalued?

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.6 (forward 25.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ORLY?

36 analysts cover ORLY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $110.

What does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. do?O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts in North America,...

O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts in North America, operating 6,447 stores in 48 US states plus 112 in Mexico and 26 in Canada as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is split approximately 50/50 between DIY and professional service provider customers; 32 DCs provide same-day access to 156,000+ SKUs.

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