BorgWarner has posted 3 beats in its last 4 quarters with consensus estimates rising 5.2% in the past 30 days and free cash flow converting at 280% of reported net income — but with 71% of revenue concentrated in 10 customers, 84% generated outside the United States, and price momentum below the minimum entry threshold, the risk/reward at current prices — 5.1% upside to resistance against a 0.73-to-1 reward/risk ratio — supports holding rather than adding.
Thesis pillars
- Rising Estimate Revision Trend↑Improving
- Unfavorable Asymmetry At Target→Stable
- Dual Customer Geographic Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Wait for pullback to $54.05. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.93. Engine's entry $54.05 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (71.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (84.0%).
BorgWarner supplies powertrain and propulsion components to automotive OEMs worldwide across four segments, generating $14.3 billion in net sales for 2025. Revenue is predominantly from Foundational combustion and hybrid products (82% of sales), with Volkswagen (13%) and Ford... Read more
Wait for pullback to $54.05. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.93. Engine's entry $54.05 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (71.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (84.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About BorgWarner Inc.
About BorgWarner Inc.
BorgWarner generated $14.3 billion in net sales for 2025 across four segments: Turbos & Thermal Technologies ($5.8 billion), Drivetrain & Morse Systems ($5.7 billion), PowerDrive Systems ($2.3 billion), and Battery & Charging Systems ($590 million), with 84% of net sales generated outside the United States. Volkswagen accounted for 13% and Ford for 12% of net sales in 2025. EProducts revenue reached $2.6 billion or 18% of total revenue in 2025, up from 14% in 2023.
BorgWarner earns revenue through annual OEM supply agreements and long-term contracts, primarily for light-vehicle applications (~82% of net sales in 2025). Turbochargers for light vehicles represent the single largest product line at approximately 21% of consolidated net sales. OEM customers — including Volkswagen and Ford — apply continuous annual price-reduction pressure, and cost recovery on inflation has been below 100% in recent years. Raw materials including aluminum, copper, nickel, steel, and semiconductor chips are sourced from multiple providers, though tariff actions have been a headwind: in 2025, $918 million of US-bound import value was sourced 68% from Mexico, 9% from Canada, and 6% from South Korea. Top ten customers represented 71% of net sales. Competitors include Robert Bosch, Denso, Garrett Motion, Valeo, and Schaeffler. The company made the decision to exit its charging business in February 2025, with production operations ceasing during the second quarter.
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BorgWarner's 84% non-US revenue share, combined with a US-import supply chain concentrated in Mexico, exposes the company to compounding trade-policy risk. The 10-K notes that the USMCA is subject to renewal in 2026, and that strained U.S.-China relations along with potential further tariff actions may increase raw material costs and reduce demand. The company reached cost-recovery agreements with customers in 2022, 2023, and 2024, but the filing notes no assurance that future recovery efforts will succeed without disrupting operations.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
From BorgWarner Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — BorgWarner Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Empowered Funds LLC Purchases 195,612 Shares of BorgWarner Inc. $BWA - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Here's Why BorgWarner (BWA) is a Strong Value Stock - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS BorgWarner (BWA) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS BorgWarner Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS BofA raises target for BorgWarner stock to USD 85 from USD 78 - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerVolkswagen13%10-K Item 1: 'Volkswagen| 13 | %'
- LOWCustomerFord12%10-K Item 1: 'Ford| 12 | %'
- HIGHCustomertop ten customers71%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to the Company's top ten customers represented 71% of sales for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- HIGHGeographicoutside the United States84%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 16% of the Company's net sales were generated in the United States, and 84% were generated outside the United States'
- LOWProductturbochargers for light vehicles21%10-K Item 1: 'Sales of turbochargers for light vehicles represented approximately 21%, 21% and 22% of the Company's net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023'
- MEDIUMSupplierMexico10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, we imported approximately $918 million in value to the U.S. Approximately 68% of that value originated in Mexico'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-28Item 5.02LOWOn May 26, 2026, BorgWarner appointed Stefan Demmerle as VP, President & GM of Battery Energy Systems and CTO, effective July 1, 2026. Internal move from President & GM of PowerDrive Systems (since 2015). No changes to compensatory arrangements.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOWOn April 29, 2026, stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2023 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing authorized shares by 8.3 million. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departure disclosed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $54.05. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.93. Engine's entry $54.05 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (71.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (84.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $73.14 (+30.8%), stop $51.52 (−8.6%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $73.14 (+30.8% upside). Target $73.14 (+30.8%), stop $51.52 (−8.6%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Stop-loss: $51.52.
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (71.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the United States (84.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
BorgWarner Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.0 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
20 analysts cover BWA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $81.
What does BorgWarner Inc. do?BorgWarner supplies powertrain and propulsion components to automotive OEMs worldwide across four segments, generating...
BorgWarner supplies powertrain and propulsion components to automotive OEMs worldwide across four segments, generating $14.3 billion in net sales for 2025. Revenue is predominantly from Foundational combustion and hybrid products (82% of sales), with Volkswagen (13%) and Ford (12%) as the top customers and 84% of sales outside the United States.