Allison Transmission Holdings, (ALSN) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. At $120.50, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top five OEM customers (52.0%).
Allison Transmission manufactures fully automatic transmissions and propulsion solutions for commercial vehicles, defense, and off-highway markets, generating revenues 76% concentrated in North America in 2025. The top five OEM customers (Daimler, PACCAR, Traton and others)... Read more
Sell if holding. At $120.50, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top five OEM customers (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Allison Transmission Holdings,
About Allison Transmission Holdings,
North America On-Highway transmissions generated $1.54 billion — 51% of Allison Transmission's 2025 net sales — while Service Parts and Support Equipment contributed $643 million (21%), Outside North America On-Highway $507 million (17%), Defense $267 million (9%), and Global Off-Highway $53 million (2%). Roughly 76% of total revenues originated in North America across all segments. The Indianapolis-based company distributed through approximately 1,500 independent distributor and dealer locations globally.
Allison sells transmissions to OEMs who install them as original or optional equipment in commercial vehicles. In North America, over 90% of on-highway unit volume is covered by long-term agreements typically running three to five years, offering defined pricing and commodity cost-sharing terms. The three largest customers in 2025 — Daimler AG (18% of net sales), PACCAR Inc. (11%), and Traton SE (10%) — together represented 39% of net sales, with the full top-five group at 52%. The company competes primarily with Ford Motor Company, ZF Friedrichshafen AG, and Driventic GmbH in North American fully automatic transmissions and with BAE Systems in electric hybrid transit propulsion. The aftermarket — branded service parts, remanufactured transmissions, and transmission fluids — contributes roughly 21% of net sales and benefits from the growing installed base of Allison-equipped vehicles. Defense revenues stem from long-standing U.S. Department of Defense contracts covering tactical wheeled vehicles and tracked vehicles including the Abrams M1A2 tank.
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Labor exposure is elevated: 49% of Allison's U.S. employees, representing 43% of total employees, are covered by a UAW collective bargaining agreement effective through November 2027. Following the January 2026 acquisition of the Acquired Off-Highway Business, approximately 68% of those newly acquired U.S. employees are also represented by UAW or USW. The 10-K notes significant labor cost increases under recent collective bargaining, and if renewed agreements require further compensation increases beyond anticipated levels, operating margins could be pressured in 2027 and beyond.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
From Allison Transmission Holdings, 's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — Allison Transmission Holdings,
Latest news
- NEWS Vest Financial LLC Purchases 10,824 Shares of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. $ALSN - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Earnings Preview: ALSN to Report Financial Results Post-market on May 04 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 neutral
- NEWS Why Allison Transmission Stock Is Sinking After Record Highs - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Allison Transmission (ALSN) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Polaris Capital Management LLC Trims Stock Position in Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. $ALSN - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorth America76%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 76% of our revenues being generated in North America in 2025'
- HIGHCustomertop five OEM customers52%10-K Item 1A: 'our top five OEM customers accounted for approximately 52%, 55% and 52% of our net sales, respectively'
- LOWCustomerDaimler AG18%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top three customers, Daimler AG, PACCAR Inc. and Traton SE, accounted for approximately 18%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales during 2025'
- HIGHSuppliersingle source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75% of our total spending on components was sourced from approximately 40 suppliers, many of which are the single source for such components'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWChief Legal Officer Eric C. Scroggins designated as Tier 1 participant (upgraded from Tier 1/2) in the Executive Change in Control and Severance Plan, approved May 6, 2026 by the Compensation Committee. No departure; compensatory arrangement update only.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $120.50, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top five OEM customers (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $112.95. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $119.01 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $112.95. Stop-loss: $112.95.
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top five OEM customers (52.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Allison Transmission Holdings, trades at a P/E of 18.3 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover ALSN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $137.
What does Allison Transmission Holdings, do?Allison Transmission manufactures fully automatic transmissions and propulsion solutions for commercial vehicles,...
Allison Transmission manufactures fully automatic transmissions and propulsion solutions for commercial vehicles, defense, and off-highway markets, generating revenues 76% concentrated in North America in 2025. The top five OEM customers (Daimler, PACCAR, Traton and others) represented 52% of net sales; long-term agreements with OEMs cover over 90% of North American on-highway volume.