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OGSONE Gas, Inc.Sell4.5·$77.78+2.22%
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ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $77.78 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, serving approximately 2.3 million customers across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas through three divisions. It is the largest natural gas distributor in Oklahoma and Kansas and generates... Read more

$77.78+0.3% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#12 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-5.98%
IncomeYield3.57%(5y avg 3.43%)Payout60.72%
Stop $74.14Target $78.01(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$89.67+15.3%9 analysts
$78.01our TP
$77.78price
$89.67mean
$103

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $77.78 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13

Recent Developments — ONE Gas, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.2
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA10.5
Profit Mgn11.8%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth-11.1%
Beta0.65
Dividend3.57%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV53%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -11.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
2.6
Declining revenue: -11%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
3.4
Rsi
3.5
Macd
6.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
4.3
Value Rank
5.2

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.6
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 357.0%
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $75.58Resistance $84.12

Price Targets

$74
$78
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $77.78 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $74.14. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $78.01 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $74.14. Stop-loss: $74.14.

What are the risks of investing in OGS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is OGS overvalued or undervalued?

ONE Gas, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OGS?

14 analysts cover OGS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $90.

What does ONE Gas, Inc. do?ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, serving approximately...

ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, serving approximately 2.3 million customers across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas through three divisions. It is the largest natural gas distributor in Oklahoma and Kansas and generates revenue from fixed and variable distribution charges under state regulatory rate structures.

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