ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the OGS stock price target?

Entry $79.89, take-profit $88.96 (+11.4% upside). Target $88.96 (-0.0%), stop $76.35 (−16.5%), A.R:R -1.9:1.

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $88.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.0% away).

$88.97+11.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas

Entry $79.89(200-day MA)Stop $76.35Target $88.96(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1Setup A.R:R 2.6:1

Analyst target$92.38+3.8%8 analysts

$88.96our TP

$88.97price

$92.38mean

$78

$103

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $88.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $88.92 has reached target $88.96. No upside to wait for. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Near 52-week high (2.0% away)

Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4

P/E (Fwd)17.9

Mkt Cap$5.6B

EV/EBITDA11.6

Profit Mgn10.9%

ROE8.1%

Rev Growth9.3%

Beta0.74

Dividend3.05%

Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish

IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMGeographicOklahoma, Kansas, and Texas
10-K Item 1A: 'Our business activities are concentrated in three states. We provide natural gas distribution services to customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-18Item 5.02LOW
Curtis L. Dinan promoted to President and COO effective March 1, 2026; Robert S. McAnnally continues as CEO. Dinan's base salary increased to $600,000 with updated incentive terms. No officer departures.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.615%0.84

Quality4.115%0.61

Growth4.015%0.60

Momentum5.410%0.54

Sentiment5.910%0.59

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.710%0.47

Technical Setup6.05%0.30

Risk Profile6.85%0.34

Catalyst5.95%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)5.09

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesA.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate

RSI

52 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $86.07Resistance $90.78

Price Targets

$76

$80

$89

A.Upside-0.0%

A.R:R-1.9:1

Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.6% upside)

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is OGS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $88.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $88.92 has reached target $88.96. No upside to wait for. Target $88.96 (-0.0%), stop $76.35 (−16.5%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $88.96 (+11.4% upside). Target $88.96 (-0.0%), stop $76.35 (−16.5%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Stop-loss: $76.35.

What are the risks of investing in OGS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.0% away); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Negative free cash flow.

Is OGS overvalued or undervalued?

ONE Gas, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OGS?

11 analysts cover OGS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $92.

What does ONE Gas, Inc. do?ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility serving approximately 2.3 million customers in Oklahoma,...

ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility serving approximately 2.3 million customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, and one of the largest publicly traded natural gas utilities in the United States. Revenue comes from regulated distribution rates set by state regulators (OCC, KCC, RRC, and Texas municipalities), with capital tracking mechanisms allowing rate recovery between general rate cases.