Skip to main content

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $190.44 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%).

Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distributor serving approximately 3.4 million customers in eight states primarily in the South, operating regulated distribution and pipeline/storage segments. Revenue is established by state regulatory authorities and includes purchased gas... Read more

$190.44-0.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
Stop $183.89Target $188.66(resistance)A.R:R -2.7:1
Analyst target$189.45-0.5%11 analysts
$188.66our TP
$190.44price
$189.45mean
$165
$206

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $190.44 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)21.4
Mkt Cap$31.4B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn25.7%
ROE9.2%
Rev Growth14.2%
Beta0.69
Dividend2.11%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 75 percent of our consolidated operations are located in the State of Texas.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -2.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $181.32Resistance $192.51

Price Targets

$184
$189
A.Upside-0.9%
A.R:R-2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $190.44 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $183.89. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ATO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $188.66 (-0.8% upside). Prior stop was $183.89. Stop-loss: $183.89.

What are the risks of investing in ATO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.2% away).

Is ATO overvalued or undervalued?

Atmos Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ATO?

19 analysts cover ATO with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $189.

What does Atmos Energy Corporation do?Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distributor serving approximately 3.4 million customers in eight states primarily in...

Atmos Energy is a natural gas-only distributor serving approximately 3.4 million customers in eight states primarily in the South, operating regulated distribution and pipeline/storage segments. Revenue is established by state regulatory authorities and includes purchased gas cost adjustment mechanisms that largely insulate operating income from gas price fluctuations.

Related stocks: UGI (UGI Corporation) · BIPC (Brookfield Infrastructure Corpo) · NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) · SR (Spire Inc.) · NI (NiSource Inc)