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ATOAtmos Energy CorporationSell5.3·$170.53+0.34%
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Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $170.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%).

Atmos Energy distributes natural gas to approximately 3.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across eight states, primarily in the South, through its Distribution segment and Atmos Pipeline-Texas. Revenues are set by state regulatory authorities through... Read more

$170.53+3.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#6 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-7.79%
IncomeYield2.35%(5y avg 2.40%)Payout46.06%sustainable
Stop $164.48Target $175.95(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$186.18+9.2%11 analysts
$175.95our TP
$170.53price
$186.18mean
$206

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $170.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.9
P/E (Fwd)18.9
Mkt Cap$28.4B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn27.6%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth0.6%
Beta0.60
Dividend2.35%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas75%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 75 percent of our consolidated operations are located in the State of Texas'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
4.9
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $166.33Resistance $179.54

Price Targets

$164
$176
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $170.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $164.48. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ATO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $175.95 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $164.48. Stop-loss: $164.48.

What are the risks of investing in ATO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas (75.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is ATO overvalued or undervalued?

Atmos Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.9 (forward 18.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ATO?

18 analysts cover ATO with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $186.

What does Atmos Energy Corporation do?Atmos Energy distributes natural gas to approximately 3.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers...

Atmos Energy distributes natural gas to approximately 3.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across eight states, primarily in the South, through its Distribution segment and Atmos Pipeline-Texas. Revenues are set by state regulatory authorities through authorized returns on invested capital, with formula rate mechanisms in four states allowing annual refreshes without full rate cases.

Related stocks: SR (Spire Inc.) · CPK (Chesapeake Utilities Corporatio) · NI (NiSource Inc) · CTRI (Centuri Holdings, Inc.) · NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation)
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