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KNXKnight-Swift Transportation HolSell4.5·$80.35-0.45%
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Knight-Swift Transportation Hol (KNX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.35: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Knight-Swift is one of North America's largest and most diversified freight transportation companies, generating $7.5B in total revenue in 2025 across four segments: Truckload, LTL, Logistics, and Intermodal. The company serves a diversified customer base; the largest customer... Read more

$80.35+0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#7 of 9 Trucking
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.75%
IncomeYield0.99%(5y avg 1.06%)Payout352.38%at-risk
Stop $75.05Target $80.79(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$76.47-4.8%17 analysts
$80.79our TP
$80.35price
$76.47mean
$54
$94

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.35: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Target reached (-14.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)384.3
P/E (Fwd)23.6
Mkt Cap$13.1B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn0.5%
ROE0.5%
Rev Growth1.4%
Beta1.20
Dividend0.99%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV54%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest customer13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Services provided to our largest customer generated 13.1% and 12.6% of total revenue in 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop 5 customers26%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top 25, top 10, and top 5 customers accounted for 49.3%, 34.8%, and 25.6% of our total revenue, respectively' in 2025

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Director Amy Boerger advised she will not stand for reelection at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement cited; routine board departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
2.2
Growth Rank
4.4

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.8
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.2
Net Margin
0.2
Operating Margin
0.5
Roa
0.8
Gross Margin
0.8
Current Ratio
2.8
Moat
4.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
90 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $59.19Resistance $82.44

Price Targets

$75
$81
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KNX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.35: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $75.05. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KNX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.79 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $75.05. Stop-loss: $75.05.

What are the risks of investing in KNX?

Target reached (-14.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow.

Is KNX overvalued or undervalued?

Knight-Swift Transportation Hol trades at a P/E of 384.3 (forward 23.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KNX?

23 analysts cover KNX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $76.

What does Knight-Swift Transportation Hol do?Knight-Swift is one of North America's largest and most diversified freight transportation companies, generating $7.5B...

Knight-Swift is one of North America's largest and most diversified freight transportation companies, generating $7.5B in total revenue in 2025 across four segments: Truckload, LTL, Logistics, and Intermodal. The company serves a diversified customer base; the largest customer accounted for 13.1% of total revenue in 2025, with no other single customer exceeding 10%.

Related stocks: ARCB (ArcBest Corporation) · XPO (XPO, Inc.) · TFII (TFI International Inc.) · WERN (Werner Enterprises, Inc.) · SNDR (Schneider National, Inc.)
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