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NVSNovartis AGSell5.0·$153.70-0.14%
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Novartis AG (NVS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $153.70 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection... Read more

$153.70-0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#16 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield4.12%
IncomeYield3.10%(5y avg 3.53%)Payout67.91%
Stop $147.29Target $151.62(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$153.87+0.1%10 analysts
$151.62our TP
$153.70price
$153.87mean
$123
$180

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $153.70 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.9
P/E (Fwd)15.4
Mkt Cap$292.1B
EV/EBITDA14.5
Profit Mgn23.9%
ROE34.9%
Rev Growth-0.7%
Beta0.49
Dividend3.10%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV50%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -1%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.3
Bollinger
1.7
52w Position
8.3

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Value Rank
3.1
Quality Rank
6.4
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $142.26Resistance $154.71

Price Targets

$147
$152
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $153.70 — A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $147.29. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NVS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.62 (-0.9% upside). Prior stop was $147.29. Stop-loss: $147.29.

What are the risks of investing in NVS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Weak growth.

Is NVS overvalued or undervalued?

Novartis AG trades at a P/E of 21.9 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NVS?

34 analysts cover NVS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $154.

What does Novartis AG do?Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland...

Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It also provides Tasigna to treat philadelphia chromosomepositive chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic and/or accelerated phase; Xolair for the treatment of allergic asthma and nasal polyps or severe chronic rhinosi nusitis with nasal polyps; Ilaris to treat fever syndromes, Still's disease, and acute gouty arthritis; Pluvicto to treat prostatespecific membrane anti genpositive metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer; Sandostatin SC and Sandostatin LAR to treat acromegaly carcinoid tumors and other types of functional gastro intestinal and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors; Zolgensma for the treatment of genetic root cause of spinal muscular atrophy; Lucentis; Leqvio to reduce LDL cholesterol; Lutathera; Scemblix; and Fabhalta. The company focuses on therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. It has a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran), a therapy to reduce LDL cholesterol. Novartis AG was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

Related stocks: NVO (Novo Nordisk A/S) · LLY (Eli Lilly and Company) · GILD (Gilead Sciences, Inc.) · BIIB (Biogen Inc.) · BMY (Bristol-Myers Squibb Company)
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