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NVRNVR, Inc.Sell4.8·$6374.93-1.62%
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NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6374.93 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are primarily constructed on a pre-sold basis. To more fully serve customers of our homebuilding operations, we also operate a mortgage banking... Read more

$6374.93+0.3% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#8 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.27%
Stop $6053.11Target $6394.50(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$7070.00+10.9%6 analysts
$6394.50our TP
$6374.93price
$7070.00mean
$5664
$8096

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6374.93 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.8/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.6
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$17.2B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn12.5%
ROE33.3%
Rev Growth-21.4%
Beta0.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-15Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Name and Principal Position | Options Granted Paul C. Saville, Executive Chairman of the Board | 5,238 Eugene J. Bredow, President and Chief Executive Officer | 5,238 Daniel D. Malzahn, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer | 2,670 Matthew B.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -21.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
2.5
Declining revenue: -21%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.5
Bollinger
2.0
52w Position
4.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.9
Growth Rank
1.9
Quality Rank
8.8
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5501.01Resistance $6525.00

Price Targets

$6053
$6395
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6374.93 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $6053.11. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NVR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6394.50 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $6053.11. Stop-loss: $6053.11.

What are the risks of investing in NVR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.

Is NVR overvalued or undervalued?

NVR, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NVR?

15 analysts cover NVR with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $7070.

What does NVR, Inc. do?Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings,...

Our primary business is the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are primarily constructed on a pre-sold basis. To more fully serve customers of our homebuilding operations, we also operate a mortgage banking and title services business. We conduct our homebuilding activities directly. Our mortgage banking operations are operated primarily through a wholly owned subsidiary, NVR Mortgage Finance, Inc. ("NVRM").

Related stocks: CVCO (Cavco Industries, Inc.) · IBP (Installed Building Products, In) · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.) · MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.) · GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.)
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