NVR Inc. is a homebuilder with an exceptional ROE of 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but is trading in a confirmed death cross downtrend with revenue declining 21% year-over-year and a weak growth score of 1.2/10, raising concerns about near-term demand.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Resilience↓Deteriorating
- Exceptional Roe And Balance Sheet↓Deteriorating
- Revenue Decline Weak Growth↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026
NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5792.63 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: homebuilding segment customers.
NVR, Inc. constructs and sells single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands across 37 metropolitan areas in 16 states and Washington, D.C., primarily on a pre-sold basis. The company also operates a... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5792.63 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: homebuilding segment customers. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About NVR, Inc.
About NVR, Inc.
NVR builds single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominiums under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands across 37 metropolitan areas in 16 states and Washington, D.C., organized into four homebuilding segments: Mid Atlantic, North East, Mid East, and South East. Homes settled during 2025 averaged $460,600, with prices ranging from approximately $170,000 to $2.3 million, and backlog stood at 8,448 units worth approximately $4.0 billion as of December 31, 2025.
NVR generates revenue primarily by constructing and settling homes sold on a pre-sold basis, avoiding direct land development by acquiring finished lots from third-party developers through lot purchase agreements (LPAs) that require forfeitable deposits typically up to 10% of the purchase price rather than outright land ownership. Construction is performed by independent subcontractors under fixed-price contracts, and the company states it is not dependent on any single subcontractor or small group of subcontractors. NVR Mortgage Finance (NVRM) originates mortgage loans exclusively for NVR homebuyers, generating revenue from origination fees, gains on loan sales, and title fees, then sells substantially all closed loans into the secondary market on a servicing-released basis within 30 days, primarily to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, the VA, and the FHA. Because NVRM serves only NVR's own homebuyers, its loan volume rises and falls directly with the pace of homebuilding settlements.
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Interest-rate and mortgage-financing sensitivity is the dominant discretionary-spending lens for NVR: because almost all of its customers require mortgage financing, and because NVR Mortgage Finance originates loans exclusively for NVR's own homebuyers, deteriorating affordability shows up directly in cancellation trends rather than in a diversified lending book. NVR's cancellation rate, expressed as total cancellations against gross sales during the period, rose to approximately 17% in 2025 from 14% in 2024 and 13% in 2023, while the average price of homes in backlog declined to $474,400 from $481,400 over the same year. The 10-K notes NVR held $900 million in senior notes outstanding as of December 31, 2025, subject to restrictive covenants that could limit flexibility if cancellations or margin pressure continue.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
From NVR, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 3, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — NVR, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS NVR slides 4.9% after Q1 profit and revenue drop sharply on weaker settlements and margin pressure - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS NVR (NYSE:NVR) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q1 CY2026 Earnings - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS BTIG cuts NVR stock price target on lower margin expectations - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS NVR (NYSE: NVR) Q1 2026 earnings: net income down 34% on softer margins - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS NVR stock slides after Q1 earnings disappoint (NVR:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha negative
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerhomebuilding segment customers10-K Item 1A: 'Because NVRM originates mortgage loans exclusively for our homebuilding customers, NVRM is dependent on our homebuilding segment.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-14Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee granted non-qualified stock options to four executive officers, including Executive Chairman Paul Saville and CEO Eugene Bredow, at a $5,720.10 exercise price; awards split between time-based (vesting Dec 31, 2028) and performance-based (2026-2028 return on capital) tranches.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -8.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5792.63 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: homebuilding segment customers. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Prior stop was $5387.15. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $5447.94 reached (−6.0% from $5792.63); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $5387.15. Stop-loss: $5387.15.
Concentration risk — Customer: homebuilding segment customers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
NVR, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover NVR with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $6262.
What does NVR, Inc. do?NVR, Inc. constructs and sells single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes,...
NVR, Inc. constructs and sells single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands across 37 metropolitan areas in 16 states and Washington, D.C., primarily on a pre-sold basis. The company also operates a mortgage banking and title services business through NVR Mortgage Finance, which originates loans exclusively for NVR homebuyers. NVR reported a backlog of 8,448 homes valued at approximately $4.0 billion as of December 31, 2025, with an average home price of $460,600.