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NTRANatera, Inc.Hold5.5·$220.35+1.78%
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Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $220.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon, and Signatera (majority of revenue); Concentration risk — Counterparty: DNAnexus (sole cloud platform for algorithms).

Natera is a diagnostics company commercializing cfDNA-based tests for oncology (Signatera MRD), women's health (Panorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening), and organ health (Prospera transplant rejection). Revenue reached $2,306.1M in 2025 ($2,295.8M product revenue), processing... Read more

$220.35+6.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#11 of 26 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.44%
Stop $203.88Target $233.34(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$259.26+17.7%19 analysts
$233.34our TP
$220.35price
$259.26mean
$193
$300

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $220.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon, and Signatera (majority of revenue); Concentration risk — Counterparty: DNAnexus (sole cloud platform for algorithms). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon, and Signatera (majority of revenue)
Concentration risk — Counterparty: DNAnexus (sole cloud platform for algorithms)
Thin upside margin: 6.4%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-732.9
Mkt Cap$31.0B
EV/EBITDA-112.7
Profit Mgn-9.0%
ROE-15.0%
Rev Growth38.8%
Beta1.54
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductPanorama NIPT, Horizon, and Signatera (majority of revenue)
    10-K Item 1A: 'the significant majority of our revenues are derived from sales of our Panorama NIPT, our Horizon carrier screening, or HCS, test, and our Signatera test'
  • HIGHcounterpartyDNAnexus (sole cloud platform for algorithms)
    10-K Item 1: 'We do not have any backup cloud platform, server or other means to host our algorithms, and may be unable to find and implement an alternative platform that is satisfactory for our needs on commercially reasonable terms, in a timely manner, or at all'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOW
    Eric Rubin appointed as Class I director to the Board effective March 26, 2026; Board expanded from ten to eleven members. Dr. Rubin joins Nominating, Corporate Governance and Compliance Committee. No arrangement cited for selection.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.2
Quality Rank
1.8
Growth Rank
8.5
Industry growth leader

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.0
Bollinger
2.6
52w Position
7.1
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $184.81Resistance $227.90

Price Targets

$204
$233
A.Upside+5.9%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTRA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $220.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon, and Signatera (majority of revenue); Concentration risk — Counterparty: DNAnexus (sole cloud platform for algorithms). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $233.34 (+5.9%), stop $203.88 (−8.1%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NTRA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $233.34 (+6.4% upside). Target $233.34 (+5.9%), stop $203.88 (−8.1%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $203.88.

What are the risks of investing in NTRA?

Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon, and Signatera (majority of revenue); Concentration risk — Counterparty: DNAnexus (sole cloud platform for algorithms); Thin upside margin: 6.4%.

Is NTRA overvalued or undervalued?

Natera, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -732.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NTRA?

27 analysts cover NTRA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $259.

What does Natera, Inc. do?Natera is a diagnostics company commercializing cfDNA-based tests for oncology (Signatera MRD), women's health...

Natera is a diagnostics company commercializing cfDNA-based tests for oncology (Signatera MRD), women's health (Panorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening), and organ health (Prospera transplant rejection). Revenue reached $2,306.1M in 2025 ($2,295.8M product revenue), processing approximately 3.5 million tests. The company markets tests through a direct U.S. sales force and 100+ international lab/distribution partners.

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