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Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $207.62, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening, and Signatera; Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina.

Natera is a diagnostics company using cell-free DNA technology for oncology, women's health, and organ health testing. Revenue was $2,306.1M in 2025 from ~3.5M tests; key products include Panorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening, and Signatera ctDNA. It operates with a global... Read more

$207.62+11.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#9 of 25 Diagnostics & Research
Stop $193.12Target $232.20(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$258.00+24.3%18 analysts
$232.20our TP
$207.62price
$258.00mean
$190
$300

Sell if holding. At $207.62, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening, and Signatera; Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening, and Signatera
Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-303.9
Mkt Cap$29.4B
EV/EBITDA-104.5
Profit Mgn-9.0%
ROE-14.3%
Rev Growth39.8%
Beta1.68
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV98%elevated
Max Pain$320+54.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductPanorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening, and Signatera
    10-K Item 1A: 'the significant majority of our revenues are derived from sales of our Panorama NIPT, our Horizon carrier screening, or HCS, test, and our Signatera test'
  • HIGHSupplierIllumina
    10-K Item 1A: 'the required sequencers and reagents from our supplier, Illumina, Inc., or Illumina, who is also one of our main NIPT competitors'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOW
    Board expanded from 10 to 11; Eric Rubin appointed as independent Class I director effective March 26, 2026. Standard non-employee director compensation. No arrangement with other persons.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.4
Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
9.2
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $184.00Resistance $220.00

Price Targets

$193
$232
A.Upside+11.8%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTRA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $207.62, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening, and Signatera; Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $193.12. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NTRA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $232.20 (+11.8% upside). Prior stop was $193.12. Stop-loss: $193.12.

What are the risks of investing in NTRA?

Concentration risk — Product: Panorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening, and Signatera; Concentration risk — Supplier: Illumina; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is NTRA overvalued or undervalued?

Natera, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -303.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NTRA?

28 analysts cover NTRA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $258.

What does Natera, Inc. do?Natera is a diagnostics company using cell-free DNA technology for oncology, women's health, and organ health testing....

Natera is a diagnostics company using cell-free DNA technology for oncology, women's health, and organ health testing. Revenue was $2,306.1M in 2025 from ~3.5M tests; key products include Panorama NIPT, Horizon carrier screening, and Signatera ctDNA. It operates with a global network of 100+ lab and distribution partners.

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