Value
4.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
NTRA · Why this verdict
Why Natera (NTRA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 4.1 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 0.4%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 44 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 39% YoY
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.3 |
| Analyst rating | 8.9 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.47 (n=3)
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $79,266,474 (0.257% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $120
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.69
Upside
+9.3%
Downside
13.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.54>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.69 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.9, Insider at 3.4, and Value at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.