Medpace is a high-quality, fast-growing contract research business with consistent double-digit earnings beats and strong returns on capital, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst target with virtually no price headroom remaining, screens expensive at a forward P/E of roughly 25 times with a PEG above 2.8, and carries significant customer exposure to small biopharmaceutical clients representing over 80% of revenues.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Large Earnings Beats↓Deteriorating
- Compounder Quality Profile→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Wait for pullback to $666.32. Price sits above the model's entry target of $666.32; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Medpace Holdings provides full-service Phase I-IV clinical trial services to biotech, pharma, and medical device companies across 46 countries, employing approximately 6,200 staff. Revenue comes from fixed-fee clinical trial contracts; 82% of 2025 net revenue derived from small... Read more
Wait for pullback to $666.32. Price sits above the model's entry target of $666.32; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 102d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Here's How Much $100 Invested In Medpace Holdings 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS Insider Decision: August J Troendle Offloads $1.59M Worth Of Medpace Holdings Stock - Benzinga — Benzinga negative
- NEWS Insider Decision: August J Troendle Offloads $1.59M Worth Of Medpace Holdings Stock - benzinga.com — benzinga.com negative
- NEWS Medpace stock reports 17.20 percent Q2 revenue growth - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS positive
- NEWS Medpace stock reports 17.20 percent Q2 revenue growth - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomersmall biopharmaceutical companies82%10-K Item 1A: '82% and 13% of our net revenue was derived from small biopharmaceutical companies and mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies, respectively'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers35%10-K Item 1A: 'we derive approximately 35.1% of our net revenue from our top ten customers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-04Item 5.02LOWBrad W. Hansman (age 43) appointed EVP Operations effective June 1, 2026, to perform principal operating officer functions alongside existing EVP Susan Burwig. Internal promotion from Senior Vice President. No departing officer.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUMJesse Geiger notified intent to resign as President, effective May 31, 2026, to retire. No successor named in available filing text. No disagreement with Company cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $666.32. Price sits above the model's entry target of $666.32; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Analyst target $560.95 reached (−19.0%), stop $622.58 (−11.3%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $560.95 reached (−19.0% from $692.68); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $560.95 reached (−19.0%), stop $622.58 (−11.3%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $622.58.
Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.2% away).
Medpace Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 38.5 (forward 34.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
20 analysts cover MEDP with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $645.
What does Medpace Holdings, Inc. do?Medpace Holdings provides full-service Phase I-IV clinical trial services to biotech, pharma, and medical device...
Medpace Holdings provides full-service Phase I-IV clinical trial services to biotech, pharma, and medical device companies across 46 countries, employing approximately 6,200 staff. Revenue comes from fixed-fee clinical trial contracts; 82% of 2025 net revenue derived from small biopharmaceutical clients.