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Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitAI GATE: FLAGGED — 3 risks, 1 concernModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research

Wait for pullback to $378.74. BUY gates pass at $421.87, but concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $378.74 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Medpace is a full-service clinical CRO providing Phase I–IV drug development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device companies, with approximately 6,200 employees across 46 countries. Revenue comes from fixed-fee and variable clinical service contracts; 82%... Read more

$421.87+12.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 26 Diagnostics & Research
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.09%
Entry $378.74(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $355.45Target $426.45(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1Setup A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$442.83+5.0%12 analysts
$426.45our TP
$421.87price
$442.83mean
$329
$495

Wait for pullback to $378.74. BUY gates pass at $421.87, but concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $378.74 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Medpace Holdings, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 22, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Jesse Geiger, President, notified company of intent to resign effective May 31, 2026. No successor named.

Generated 2026-05-21T00:01:23Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.5
P/E (Fwd)22.6
Mkt Cap$12.0B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn17.2%
ROE77.3%
Rev Growth26.5%
Beta1.19
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$920+118.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomersmall biopharmaceutical companies82%
    10-K Item 1A: '82% and 13% of our net revenue was derived from small biopharmaceutical companies and mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derive approximately 35.1% of our net revenue from our top ten customers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Jesse Geiger, President, notified company of intent to resign effective May 31, 2026. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.1
52w Position
3.4
Bollinger
3.9
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $373.00Resistance $435.15

Price Targets

$355
$379
$426
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R-0.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! News gate: flagged (3 risks, 1 concerns)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MEDP stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $378.74. BUY gates pass at $421.87, but concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%) and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $378.74 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $426.45 (+1.1%), stop $355.45 (−18.7%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MEDP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $426.45 (+12.6% upside). Target $426.45 (+1.1%), stop $355.45 (−18.7%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $355.45.

What are the risks of investing in MEDP?

Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MEDP overvalued or undervalued?

Medpace Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.5 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MEDP?

20 analysts cover MEDP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $443.

What does Medpace Holdings, Inc. do?Medpace is a full-service clinical CRO providing Phase I–IV drug development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical,...

Medpace is a full-service clinical CRO providing Phase I–IV drug development services to biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device companies, with approximately 6,200 employees across 46 countries. Revenue comes from fixed-fee and variable clinical service contracts; 82% of net revenue derives from small biopharmaceutical companies and 13% from mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies.

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