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NTNXNutanix, Inc.Sell5.2·$49.90-1.66%
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Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. At $49.90, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro).

Nutanix is a hybrid multicloud software company offering a subscription-based cloud platform that unifies compute, storage, networking, and AI workloads across private and public clouds. The company had over 29,000 end customers as of July 31, 2025, with channel partners and... Read more

$49.90+3.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#55 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.61%
Stop $46.18Target $51.31(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$57.01+14.3%15 analysts
$51.31our TP
$49.90price
$57.01mean
$40
$65

Sell if holding. At $49.90, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202677d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro)
Thin upside margin: 3.3%
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)53.4
P/E (Fwd)23.2
Mkt Cap$13.7B
EV/EBITDA41.9
Profit Mgn10.0%
ROE
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta0.60
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$110+120.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 distributors41%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top two distributors to our end customers represented 48%, 47% and 41% of our total revenue for fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierSuper Micro Computer (Supermicro)
    10-K Item 1: 'The Nutanix-branded NX series hardware platforms are manufactured by Super Micro Computer, Inc. ("Supermicro"). Supermicro designs, assembles and tests the Nutanix-branded NX series hardware platforms'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Rsi
4.0
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $43.60Resistance $56.02

Price Targets

$46
$51
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTNX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $49.90, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $46.18. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NTNX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.31 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $46.18. Stop-loss: $46.18.

What are the risks of investing in NTNX?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro); Thin upside margin: 3.3%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is NTNX overvalued or undervalued?

Nutanix, Inc. trades at a P/E of 53.4 (forward 23.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NTNX?

25 analysts cover NTNX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $57.

What does Nutanix, Inc. do?Nutanix is a hybrid multicloud software company offering a subscription-based cloud platform that unifies compute,...

Nutanix is a hybrid multicloud software company offering a subscription-based cloud platform that unifies compute, storage, networking, and AI workloads across private and public clouds. The company had over 29,000 end customers as of July 31, 2025, with channel partners and OEMs accounting for the majority of transactions. Top two distributors represented 41% of total revenue in fiscal 2025.

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