Value
5.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.6 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.49
NTNX · Why this verdict
Why Nutanix (NTNX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nutanix pairs a wide moat, strong margins and a consistent earnings-beat record with a stock already trading above the analyst target, so the business is solid but the price leaves little room.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue rose to about $757M from about $653M a year earlier (roughly 16% YoY), with next-quarter consensus near $762M. Revenue quarters | Revenue continues growing at a double-digit YoY pace across the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe growth score of 6.5 carries only 0.33 confidence, and software infrastructure spending can slow, leaving growth well below recent levels. | ||
Quality notes cite a wide economic moat, strong margins of 53%, a Rule of 40 reading of 41 (pass) and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | Margins and the Rule of 40 reading hold roughly steady while the moat remains intact over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of only 48% FCF to net income, so reported profits may overstate cash generation. | ||
Nutanix has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 21.5%, showing reliable execution against expectations. Earnings | EPS keeps meeting or beating consensus over the next four reported quarters, with positive average surprise. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats may reflect low, easily cleared estimates; the 2025-11-25 quarter was only inline (0.21% surprise) and the beat margin can fade as estimates reset higher. | ||
At $70.58 the stock sits above the $67.68 analyst target (upside of -4.1%), so the stated consensus offers no further upside from here. Upside pct | Either the price consolidates or analyst targets are raised above the current price as earnings keep beating. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTargets lag price in a strong run, and forward P/E of 26.4x with a PEG of 1.29 could still be defended if growth persists, so a higher target could easily follow. | ||
Insiders sold about $54.5M over 90 days with no buys, but this equals only 0.285% of market cap and is rated minor severity. Insider | Insider selling stays small relative to market cap and does not accelerate over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNine sells and zero buys with a bearish signal suggests insiders see little upside at the current price. | ||
Quarterly revenue rose to about $757M from about $653M a year earlier (roughly 16% YoY), with next-quarter consensus near $762M.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue continues growing at a double-digit YoY pace across the next four quarters.
CounterThe growth score of 6.5 carries only 0.33 confidence, and software infrastructure spending can slow, leaving growth well below recent levels.
Quality notes cite a wide economic moat, strong margins of 53%, a Rule of 40 reading of 41 (pass) and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins and the Rule of 40 reading hold roughly steady while the moat remains intact over 12 months.
CounterThe same notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of only 48% FCF to net income, so reported profits may overstate cash generation.
Nutanix has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 21.5%, showing reliable execution against expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps meeting or beating consensus over the next four reported quarters, with positive average surprise.
CounterBeats may reflect low, easily cleared estimates; the 2025-11-25 quarter was only inline (0.21% surprise) and the beat margin can fade as estimates reset higher.
At $70.58 the stock sits above the $67.68 analyst target (upside of -4.1%), so the stated consensus offers no further upside from here.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Either the price consolidates or analyst targets are raised above the current price as earnings keep beating.
CounterTargets lag price in a strong run, and forward P/E of 26.4x with a PEG of 1.29 could still be defended if growth persists, so a higher target could easily follow.
Insiders sold about $54.5M over 90 days with no buys, but this equals only 0.285% of market cap and is rated minor severity.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays small relative to market cap and does not accelerate over the next 12 months.
CounterNine sells and zero buys with a bearish signal suggests insiders see little upside at the current price.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 5.2 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 3.9 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 53%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 48% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.8 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.3 |
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $54,498,622 (0.277% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 9.9 |
| growth rank | 4.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 2.5 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.63
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.26
Upside
+1.9%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Technical at 6.9, and Quality at 6.8; the weakest are Insider at 4.4, Momentum at 5.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Steady Double Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 8% YoY from roughly 16% currently.
- P3Wide Moat Strong Margins
Trip ifRule of 40 reading falls below 30 from the current 41.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target stays below $60, more than 15% under the current $70.58 price, for 2 quarters.
- P5Minor Insider Selling
Trip if90-day insider net selling exceeds $150M, more than 0.8% of market cap.