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Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $316.74 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away).

Merger Agreement - On July 28, 2025, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with Union Pacific Corporation, a Utah corporation ("Union Pacific"), Ruby Merger Sub 1 Corporation, a Virginia corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union... Read more

$316.74+0.1% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#7 of 8 Railroads
Stop $303.58Target $316.90(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$332.22+4.9%18 analysts
$316.90our TP
$316.74price
$332.22mean
$297
$372

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $316.74 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.1% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.6
P/E (Fwd)23.4
Mkt Cap$70.9B
EV/EBITDA15.6
Profit Mgn21.9%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta1.31
Dividend1.71%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.06bearish
IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.5
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $286.59Resistance $323.37

Price Targets

$304
$317
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NSC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $316.74 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $303.58. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NSC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $316.90 (+0.1% upside). Prior stop was $303.58. Stop-loss: $303.58.

What are the risks of investing in NSC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.1% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is NSC overvalued or undervalued?

Norfolk Southern Corporation trades at a P/E of 26.6 (forward 23.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NSC?

27 analysts cover NSC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $332.

What does Norfolk Southern Corporation do?Merger Agreement - On July 28, 2025, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with...

Merger Agreement - On July 28, 2025, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with Union Pacific Corporation, a Utah corporation ("Union Pacific"), Ruby Merger Sub 1 Corporation, a Virginia corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific ("Merger Sub 1"), and Ruby Merger Sub 2 LLC, a Virginia limited liability company and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific ("Merger Sub 2").

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