Value
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 2.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.1x
- ▸PEG: 4.59
NSC · Why this verdict
Why Norfolk Southern (NSC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 3.9 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 49% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $110
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.63
Upside
-3.2%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.63 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 6.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2, and Quality at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 1.2, Momentum at 4.3, and Value at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.